How perceptions of crime, not data, can influence voters in New York

The gap between Republicans and Democrats' views on the national crime rate is greater than ever, and public safety will be a top priority for many voters heading to the polls next week, according to a new Gallup poll released Tuesday .

Crime rose sharply during the pandemic, but police data shows gun violence and other violent crimes have since fallen back to near pre-pandemic levels.

Overall, violent crime fell about 3% in 2023 compared to the previous year, according to the FBI. Homicides and non-negligent homicides fell 12% during the same period.

“For decades, the American public’s perception of crime has been inaccurate,” said Justin Pickett, a political science professor at the University of Albany.

He said violent crime rates across the country have declined over the past 30 years, but perceptions of crime have become increasingly inaccurate over the same period.

And Republicans are banging the public safety drum this election cycle, telling voters they are less safe now than they have been in recent years.

U.S. Rep. Marc Molinaro, a Republican seeking re-election in the competitive 19th Congressional District, has spoken out against criminal justice measures such as New York's bail reform laws and the state's stance on immigration.

“All of these measures have compromised our security, and we need to start ensuring overall security,” Molinaro told reporters in Albany last week.

This message is inconsistent with state and national data: According to the National Crime Victimization Survey, violent crime victims fell 4% between 2022 and 2023.

Earlier this month, Gov. Kathy Hochul said homicides across New York were down 12% and overall crime was down an average of 10%.

Crime data varies by community as gun violence remains high in upstate cities like Albany and Buffalo.

“Every community is hit differently, but statistics don’t lie,” said Calliana Thomas, director of the state Office of Gun Violence Prevention. “The data doesn’t lie. We are definitely seeing a decrease in all types of gun violence in New York State due to strong policies and resource allocations across the state.”

Thomas said various state programs, including the Gun Involved Violence Elimination Initiative, or GIVE program, have reduced gun violence in dozens of communities without violating gun rights.

But a rise in misinformation and political messaging about public safety is having an impact.

Tuesday's Gallup poll shows the biggest gap between how Republicans and Democrats think about crime. The data shows that 90% of Republicans believe national crime has increased, compared to 29% of Democrats and 68% of independent voters.

As 200,000 migrants have arrived in New York in the past two years, many political ads have focused on public safety issues and needed immigration reform.

Pickett said decades of national data prove that linking immigration to an increase in crime is inaccurate.

“Immigration actually has either no association or a negative association with crime,” he said Tuesday. “That means that when the number of immigrants in an area increases, the crime rate decreases slightly, and we know why. On average, legal and illegal immigrants commit fewer crimes. In a national survey of law enforcement, they thought the opposite… [but] It’s not their job to do a formal analysis of the causal effects of immigration on crime – it’s the job of people who are economists and criminologists.”

But police say it's not about official crime figures, but about people's feelings.

Delaware County Sheriff Craig Dumond, president of the New York State Sheriffs' Association, said crimes have become more serious in recent years, making people in upstate communities feel unsafe.

“Talk to the police officers that are out there every day… talk to the people who live in these communities,” he said. “I think they'll probably tell you they don't think crime is on the decline. I just don’t think that’s going to be the case.”

The sheriff reported seeing more serious stabbings and assaults in his rural county than at any time in his 20-year career. He is also skeptical of the way government agencies collect and present state and national crime data.

Pickett said it was easy for people to recall some serious incidents – leading voters to dramatically overestimate their likelihood or likelihood.

“The worst thing you can do is rely on your feelings and ignore actual evidence collected by people whose job it is to collect evidence, and that is what they are doing,” Pickett said, adding that stopping misinformation is the most important way to stop false perceptions about crime trends.

DuMond said a rise in substance abuse and mental health problems is changing the landscape around public safety and worsening public perception. And regardless of the data, the sheriff said people will remember their feelings first at the ballot box — even as official numbers show violent crime is declining.

“The numbers may be down, but the numbers we have are much more meaningful when it comes to the types of crimes,” DuMond said. “Numbers can say one thing. What people are feeling in their heads and in their hearts is something completely different and we really need to focus on that.”