Lies, damn lies and CT crime statistics

The quote “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics” is most often attributed to the British statesman Benjamin Disraeli (1804-1881). I remembered this quote after reading a recent newspaper article in which the reporter tried to make a convincing case that crime in Connecticut was down by citing statistics and interviewing a University of New Haven professor (who had previously served as Democratic member of the Connecticut House of Representatives). Representative from 1986 to 2011).

The article denigrated the poll numbers cited by Ben Proto, current chairman of the Connecticut Republican Party, who stated that it was “…one of the three or four major issues…” that citizens are most concerned about To worry. But the Pew Research Center reported that in 2022, “about six in 10 registered voters (61%) think violent crime is very important when deciding who to vote for in this year’s congressional elections.”

Greg Dillon

This is the same argument that is often used to suppress debate about today's economy. “Inflation? Nonsense, we've always had inflation! Higher fuel prices? Gasoline prices are going down! Food costs? Food has always been expensive!” The problem is – just like with crime – no sane, clear-thinking person actually believes it. We believe , what we experience, what we see, what we hear.

The lack of clarity in current crime statistics has several reasons. Here is one such report from The Marshall Project:

“The uncertainty is largely due to the fact that the 2021 data was more incomplete than any in recent memory. Comprehensive FBI data is based on voluntary submissions from law enforcement agencies (there are approximately 18,000 in the United States). This year there was a shortfall of about 7,000 police departments, covering about 35% of the U.S. population.”

Two of the country's largest police departments – New York City and Los Angeles – have failed to report their crime statistics. Additionally, the article states, “Some entire states, including California and Florida, reported virtually no data.”

Sean Kennedy and Mark Morgan (a former FBI deputy director) published an article in the Washington Examiner in 2024 titled “Bad FBI data misleads about crime:”

“In fact, violent crime has increased significantly compared to 2019. Murder rates are still high in major cities – since 2019, they have increased by 23% in all 70 cities covered by the MCCA (Major Cities Chiefs Association), according to a 32-city analysis by the non-profit organization Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ). by 18%. . In aggravated assaults, the 25-city CCJ sample reported an 8% increase, while the larger MCCA city sample reported a 26% increase over the same period.”

When it comes to Connecticut, the statistics can't be trusted because of the way crime is reported (or not). I am in contact with many law enforcement officials across the state who have confirmed this. Many victims of car break-ins don't bother reporting the crimes unless their vehicles were severely damaged or if nothing of value was stolen. Additionally, when thieves attack numerous vehicles in a parking lot, commercial garage, or residential street, there is often only one complaint number assigned to the incident. This means that 20 cars may have been broken into, which is statistically reported as a single incident. This will reduce the numbers for that city or town.

The same applies to shoplifting. Many chain stores and franchises have policies that prohibit store employees from intervening in cases of shoplifting and theft. Does this mean retail theft is down? Of course not. Only those reporting thefts have decreased. This statistic becomes meaningless when reported by law enforcement because it does not reflect actual crime or accurate crime reporting.

The same game is routinely played in traffic offenses. Who in their right mind believes that there are fewer dangerous drivers on the roads today than ever before? When we look at the number of tickets issued and arrests for negligent driving, speeding or reckless driving, the numbers do not reflect this. Why? Because according to CT Data Collaborative: “In 2022, a total of 313,346 traffic stops were conducted by police departments in Connecticut. This represents a 39% decrease in traffic stops compared to 2019.”

Of course, reducing traffic stops by almost 40 percent also reduces the number of violations and arrests. This does not mean that the number of violations themselves has decreased, but simply that the recording and reporting of these violations has decreased.

Think about the numerous road takeovers we have all experienced across our state. The last accident occurred in September 2024 and affected more than 100 motorcycles. According to the New Haven IndependentThese vehicles “performed various stunts and blocked all lanes of southbound I-95 in the New Haven, West Haven, Orange, Milford and Stratford areas.”

It gets better. When police tried to stop a pickup truck that was at the front of the group filming the stunts, the article states:

“At the same time, several motorcycles began to surround the trooper’s patrol car, intentionally impeding the trooper’s efforts to stop the GMC and at times nearly striking the patrol car. The operator of the GMC did not stop and continued southbound on I-95 at a high rate of speed. To avoid potential danger to the public and parties involved, the Trooper deactivated his patrol vehicle’s emergency lights and siren and detached himself from the vehicle.”

The truck was eventually located and stopped in upstate New York and two men were arrested. In a single incident, more than 100 vehicles in numerous cities repeatedly violated several traffic rules and no tickets were issued. None of this will ever be reflected in statistics.

While we're still throwing around statistics, here's another interesting statistic that might explain why violent crime is reportedly down. These statistics are provided courtesy of the Connecticut Office of Policy Management (OPM). “Nationwide, crime continues to be underreported, with only two in five (42%) violent victimizations estimated to have been reported to police in 2022.”

And if crime is truly down in Connecticut, why does OPM report: “There were 6% more criminal cases filed in the geographic area (GA) courts in 2023 compared to fiscal year 2022.”

Excerpts from a report by the CT Office of Policy and Management. Credit: CT Office of Policy and Management

I searched the Internet for murder cases in Hartford. Here's what came up on the first page of my search: “Top Stories of 2021: Hartford Has Deadliest Year Since 2003” (Hartford Courant); “With 35 murders, Hartford recorded its most murders in 19 years in 2022” (CT Insider); Hartford grapples with city’s eighth homicide in 10 days” (CT Insider, 2023). Do these headlines reflect a decline in violent crime?

And if you think you're safer because you're lucky enough not to call Hartford home, here's what happened to a 22-year-old kidnapping victim in the coastal community of Branford in September, according to Fox 61 News:

“According to police, the victim’s hair was set on fire, his back was cut open with a knife and he was shot several times with an air pistol over the course of three hours. There was also evidence that he had been sexually abused, police said. When officers interviewed the victim at Yale New Haven Hospital, they said his eyes were swollen shut, his front teeth were missing and he was being treated for lung damage.”

Fortunately, three people were arrested for this heinous brutality, one adult (from Hartford) and two juveniles.

Call me a skeptic, but convincing me that crime is down will take more than just cherry-picking numbers from flawed statistics and conflicting data. Seeing is believing, and everything I see on the news or read online tells me that crime – in Connecticut and nationally – is on the rise.

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