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Where the Harris-Trump Race Polls May Be: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the political editorial teaman evening newsletter bringing you the NBC News Politics team's latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today's edition, national politics correspondent Steve Kornacki explains what the polls were like in 2020 and whether the same could be the case this time. Additionally, senior Washington correspondent Hallie Jackson conducts a one-on-one interview with Kamala Harris.

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The surveys were closed in 2020. Will it exist again in 2024?

By Steve Kornacki

Four years ago, at this point, polls suggested a relatively easy victory for Joe Biden. On this day in 2020, for example, he was leading Donald Trump nationally in the RealClearPolitics polling average by 7.9 percentage points and had advantages in all swing states, with some polls even showing double-digit advantages for Biden.

Biden won the election, of course, but with a narrower popular vote margin (4.5 points) and an extremely narrow margin in the Electoral College, where a total of about 43,000 votes in three states separated him from a 269-269 tie that most likely resulted in a Trump- victory in the House of Representatives.

This time the race appears to be far closer, with Kamala Harris just two points ahead of Trump in our current national polling average and results in all seven battleground states within two points. It could be that the race is as close as these numbers suggest, and that the polls this year are more accurately capturing the state of affairs.

But the possibility of another election error is in the air. If there is a repeat of 2020 (and 2016) and the full extent of Trump's support is missed again, then he is on his way to a decisive victory. And if it's Democratic support that's somehow underrated this time, it's Harris, who is actually in great shape right now.

Why Trump's support has been underestimated in the past is controversial. But where it was overlooked is clear: States with large shares of white voters without four-year college degrees:

Wisconsin, where the polls were the furthest behind, has the highest concentration of white residents without college degrees of any battleground state. Michigan has the second highest value. This was also one of the main reasons for the failure of national polls.

Is it happening again? Here's what the education gap among white voters looks like in average current polls compared to what happened in 2020:

As you can see, Trump's lead among white voters without a college degree ended up being higher than the polls suggested. But his current lead of 27 points is almost the same as his 2020 result.

In some ways, this reinforces the idea that polls now largely capture Trump's support among white voters without college degrees. On the other hand, given how close the polls are, it wouldn't have to be nearly as far off the mark this time to make a big difference.

From Harris' perspective, part of the hope now is that the polls are understating her support among long-time Democratic core constituencies: black, Hispanic and young voters. Here's how these groups break down now compared to what transpired in 2020:

Harris' concern is obviously that her Hispanic support is far lower than Biden's in both the 2020 polls and the final election results. But much of the new Hispanic support for Trump comes from younger voters who did not participate at high levels in previous elections. If those voters remain on the sidelines in this election, Harris could end up doing much better with Hispanics than the polls now show. They are also somewhat encouraged that Biden did better with black voters in the election than polls suggested. Harris will need it to happen again.

Harris also hopes she has greater support among women in the post-Dobbs environment than polls now show. While current polls show her with an 11-point lead among women, Biden had an 18-point lead in the 2020 polls and finished the actual election with a 15-point lead.

Gender polling has seen a dramatic uptick in this campaign, with some polls showing historically large gender gaps while others are relatively modest. Among women, Harris has an average lead of 11 points, but many polls show her with a much larger lead. If these polls are correct, it could mean that Harris will do much better on November 5th than the polls now suggest.

Harris says her team is “of course” prepared if Trump declares victory before the votes are counted

By Alex Seitz-Wald

In an interview with NBC News' Hallie Jackson on Tuesday, Vice President Kamala Harris said she was preparing for the possibility that former President Donald Trump could declare victory before votes are counted in next month's election.

Sitting at her official residence at the Naval Observatory in Washington, D.C., Harris said her campaign was prepared for the possibility that Trump might try to undermine the election but that she was focused on trying to beat him first.

“We will deal with election night and the days after as they come, and we have the resources, expertise and focus to do so,” she said.

Pressed on the possibility that Trump might try to declare victory before the votes are counted and a winner is projected by news networks and other media outlets, Harris said she was concerned.

“This is a person, Donald Trump, who tried to overturn the free and fair election, who still denies the will of the people who incited a violent mob to attack the United States Capitol and 140 police officers attacked, some even killed. “This is a serious matter,” Harris said, referring to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol in which Trump supporters tried to prevent the certification of Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory.

Read more →

Democrats are preparing for a possible crack in the blue wall

By Natasha Korecki, Carol E. Lee and Monica Alba

The “blue walls” of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania paved the way to the White House for the last two Democratic presidents.

But with just 14 days until the election on November 5th, Kamala Harris' campaign is concerned about whether the vice president can claim all three states.

Recent discussions have focused on the possibility that an anomaly could occur this year with only a portion of the blue wall breaching. According to three sources with knowledge of campaign strategy, discussions focused on whether Michigan or Wisconsin would “fall” to Donald Trump while the other two states floundered.

Losing Wisconsin or Michigan would mean that even if Harris secures Pennsylvania – where both Harris and Trump have spent the most time and resources – she would fall short of the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the White House without winning another or possibly two battleground states.

Also potentially worrisome for Democrats: What Harris' campaign team had considered one of their best insurance options could also be in jeopardy. Just a few weeks ago, several Harris advisers suggested in interviews that combining the electoral votes from North Carolina and Nevada would be a strong alternative path for Harris should Trump win Pennsylvania and claim its 19 electoral votes.

While North Carolina is still in the campaign's sights and Democrats have strong organization and leadership there, the Harris team is far less optimistic about victory, four people with knowledge of the dynamic said.

Read more →


🗞️ Today's top stories

  • 🗳️ Voting observation: Election officials are taking increasingly drastic measures to ensure the safety of poll workers and voters, from donning bulletproof vests to placing snipers on rooftops and using drones for surveillance. Read more →
  • 🍦 No break for ice cream: Given increasing security concerns and increasing staffing problems in the Secret Service, Harris and Trump were forced to limit smaller events such as visits to restaurants or ice cream parlors. Read more →
  • 🤠 Deep in the heart: Harris is scheduled to travel to Texas on Friday, which her campaign has called “ground zero of extreme Trump abortion bans.” Read more →
  • ☑️ Showdown in the Silver State: Republicans see an opportunity with Latino voters in Nevada, but Democrats tout the benefits of a consistent Spanish-language message and active local campaigning. Read more →
  • 🎓 Back on campus? Harris plans to spend election night in Washington, D.C., with her campaign eyeing her alma mater, Howard University, as a possible venue for her speech, according to seven people familiar with the planning. Read more →
  • 🎙️ The boys are back in town: Trump is expected to appear on Joe Rogan's podcast to appeal to young male voters. Read more →
  • 🎸 Born to Run: Bruce Springsteen will perform at Harris campaign events in Atlanta and Philadelphia. Read more →
  • 🗽 Empire State of Mind: After New York helped the Republicans win the House of Representatives in 2022, both parties see the path to the majority through the blue state this time too. Read more →
  • 📕 Book club: Usha Vance was almost constantly on the trail alongside her husband JD Vance, often with a book in hand. Her extensive reading list provides a glimpse into the life of someone who was otherwise a quiet presence on the campaign trail. Read more →
  • Follow live coverage from the campaign trail →

That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have any feedback – likes or dislikes – email us at [email protected]

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