Did Joe Biden's “garbage” gaffe just cost Kamala Harris the US election?

WJust days before the US election, American politics is a battle of small margins. In a relatively small number of precincts in seven battleground states, it will fall to a few thousand votes, perhaps even a few hundred – a tiny number compared to the 150 million votes that will be cast.

In the winner-take-all Electoral College, where a single vote could swing an entire state behind one candidate, and in a tight race like this, you can see why party managers fret over every little thing.

Like what President Joe Biden just said or didn't say about former President Donald Trump's supporters.

After some comedian made the infamous joke about Puerto Ricans being “trash” at a Trump rally, Biden countered in an interview with a slurred remark that either condemned the comedian for his racist joke or condemned every single one of Trump's roughly 70 million fans out there.

It all depends on whether you think Biden said “supporter” or “endorser.” Biden has always had a speech impediment – but perhaps these days, like Trump, he's becoming a little more uninhibited when it comes to expressing his views.

Or rather, it doesn't really depend, in the sense that Trumpians will believe that Biden, the ultimate representative of what they see as a “swamp” political culture, despises them – all of them.

Inevitably and rightly, it reminds people of what Hillary Clinton so foolishly said about the Trumpians in 2016, mocking them for their “deplorable” views. Instead of thinking about their unconscious bias, they instead rushed to buy T-shirts that said “I'm a deplorable,” proudly adopting the label.

I just wonder if China's textile manufacturers will be able to produce a line of “garbage”-themed merchandise in time for Election Day, but they will definitely be ready for Trump's inauguration. Maybe it's a little more likely now than before Biden spoke up.

What are the effects? Relatively small in itself, as outraged Puerto Ricans are offset by outraged Trump voters, leaving an even smaller net effect – although of course that could be significant in some places, which is rather tragic from Joe's perspective. It will always be impossible to determine the exact impact of a single blunder or campaign event. How many votes is Beyoncé worth? Hulk Hogan? Trump at McDonald's?

The broader effect is that it reinforces the impression that this was a Democratic campaign that lacked a certain je ne sais quoi from the two presidential candidates. She spoke incessantly negatively about Trump and the threat he posed, with good reason, but that only seemed to motivate his base and those inclined to join him, especially in recent days, as by the (correct) label “Fascist” became widespread.

How did his supporters feel? Naturally rebellious and not averse to a bit of Trumpian fascism.

The missing element — not quite, but a mistake nonetheless — was the lack of a positive message, a plan, and reasons to believe that Kamala Harris would make American voters better off over the next four years.

It's a bit like the contests you used to find on the side of a candy wrapper or newspaper coupon, asking you to complete a sentence and win a year's supply of cereal. In this case, it would be completing the sentence: “I am voting for Kamala Harris for president because…”

As with Hillary, it's not enough to say “because she's not Donald Trump” or “because the others are deplorable/trash” or “because she'll be the first female president.”

Voters want to know what they get out of it. Otherwise it's just garbage.