Republicans 'very nervous' about North Carolina – Scott Rasmussen

According to political analyst and pollster Scott Rasmussen, Republicans are becoming “very nervous” about North Carolina as recent polls show Donald Trump and Kamala Harris neck and neck in the key battleground state.

Six days before Election Day, Rasmussen said that “the race is still too close to call,” but he would rather be in Donald Trump's position than Kamala Harris. “His lead in the southern swing states means he only has to win one of the three 'Blue Wall' states, while Harris has to make an inside straight and win all three,” he wrote on X.

However, the lead that Trump enjoyed in North Carolina is shrinking. An AtlasIntel poll compiled by FiveThirtyEight between October 25 and 29 shows Harris leading in North Carolina with 49 percent over Trump's estimated 48 percent, while an earlier Trafalgar Group poll compiled between October 25 and October 28, Trump won with 49 percent over Harris' estimated 46 percent.

As of Oct. 29, about 40 percent of all registered voters in North Carolina — about 3.2 million people — had already cast their ballots, most of them through early in-person voting, according to the state's elections board.

“Some Rs are very nervous about NC… While I think Trump has the edge in the Tarheel State, there are reasons for his team to potentially be worried,” Rasmussen wrote on X.

However, Rasmussen said if Trump wins Pennsylvania along with the other three southern swing states – Arizona, Georgia and Nevada – the Republican candidate would still win the Electoral College.

The election comes as North Carolina is still recovering from the shock of Hurricane Helene, which struck the western region of the state on September 26, killing at least 96 people and leaving thousands without power and running water. It was the state's deadliest storm in modern times, and the damage it caused is estimated at over $50 billion.

The devastating extreme weather disrupted the state's election infrastructure and forced state authorities to implement changes to ensure everyone can vote, including allowing polls to be moved and hours of operation to change. However, it remains to be seen how many people in affected areas will go to the polls on November 5 if their lives have not yet returned to normal.

In response to a request for comment from NewsweekThe Trump campaign sent the following statement from Republican National Committee spokeswoman Anna Kelly:

“President Trump is a candidate for ALL Americans, which is why he wins in every battleground, including Georgia – his message resonates with voters across the country. As CNN reported, more Americans now identify as Republicans because of Kamala for the first time since 1984.” Harris and the Democratic Party's dangerously liberal policies have failed. “Harris destroyed our economy, our borders and peace around the world, but President Trump will fix it.”

It's hard to predict which path North Carolina will take. Mark Mitchell, senior pollster at Rasmussen Reports, said Newsweek that Democrats should also be concerned about race in the state.

“Democrats should always have been worried about North Carolina because it was never as close as the polls showed,” he said. “Our last two polls in North Carolina showed Trump +3 and Trump +5, and we are releasing a poll in Georgia with Trump +6. Early voting patterns appear to confirm that there is once again a voting bias to the left, particularly in states where this was crucial to Harris' victory.

Rasmussen is one of the most well-known and respected pollsters. He said, “If you know who’s going to win, they’re either lying to you or deluding themselves.”

“The available data shows that the race is close,” he added.