Jacksonville State vs. Liberty Prediction: College Football Picks for Week 10

Conference USA Wednesday night clashes will actually disappear after this week as November brings us MACtion on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. But we still have a few games left, including perhaps the game of the year so far in C-USA. Jacksonville State faces Liberty in the evening's main event, while Kennesaw State, which just beat Liberty to earn its first FBS win in program history, will look for another David vs. Goliath result against Western Kentucky.

Jacksonville State vs. Liberty is the game in the spotlight for me and we'll start there.

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7 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)

The Flames played with fire a few times early this season and ultimately got burned, losing to the worst overall FBS team in terms of performance rating. Liberty lost to Kennesaw State 27-24 after struggling against FIU in its previous game. At least in C-USA action, this was still a pretty dominant team per game, putting up 6.4 YPP while only allowing 4.9 YPP. A difference of 1.5 YPP usually results in more impressive wins and better results.

But in terms of yards per play, this was the fifth-best offense in the country last season. Ironically, the defense is better by more than a yard per play in conference games this year, but the offense is down by about a full yard.

Before last week's faux pas, I had every intention of taking action against Liberty here. Jacksonville State was dominant in league play, averaging over 7.7 yards per play. They are almost +2.5 YPP. Liberty obviously represents a big step up in class, but the two teams have played fairly comparable conference competition. The big tests for both are against each other, Western Kentucky and Sam Houston State. None of them have played directly against each other yet.

If you had told me that there was a QB in this season's conference that I would choose over Kaidon Salter, I would have laughed until it hurt. But that's exactly what we have here with Tyler Huff, who totaled 16 touchdowns and over 2,000 yards of offense. Huff has a TD/INT ratio of 8/4 with a 65.1% completion rate and 1,406 passing yards remaining and 654 rushing yards on 94 attempts.

Salter has a 61% completion rate with a 10/2 ratio and 1,280 passing yards to his name, but he has only managed 278 yards on 61 attempts. I guess you could argue that Jamey Chadwell held back some of the game plan and his team just didn't take the schedule seriously, but this was such a disappointing Liberty team in a season where there was actually a lot to play for with the expanded playoffs and the best chance of remaining undefeated as a Group of Five team.

And yet here we are. The caveat to Jacksonville State is that they came up short against Coastal Carolina and Louisville and lost to a pretty bad Eastern Michigan team before getting back on track with four wins over four of the worst FBS teams in the country.

This could be a wake-up call for Jacksonville State. But I also think it took Huff and a lot of transfers some time to sort things out. Huff already has three games with more than 101 rushing yards and recently had games with 176 and 151 yards here. This extra dimension is what makes the difference for me.

Pick: Jacksonville State +1.5

Different Wednesday game

Kennesaw State at Western Kentucky (-24, 50.5): ESPN2 has this game as the Owls travel to Bowling Green as big underdogs. WKU caught a break when Hunter Watson was injured in the final game for Sam Houston State, as he went 6-for-9 for 128 yards and two touchdowns to start the contest.

WKU clearly has the better offense and is averaging 7.2 yards per play so far against C-USA. Kennesaw State is the only team in the country to average less than four yards per play, although they average up to 4.5 yards in conference action. The WKU defense actually trashed opponents in conference play with 6.6 YPP.

My performance numbers point to Western Kentucky. I know Kennesaw State beat Liberty, but this is also an Owls team that scored three offensive points against Middle Tennessee and had 234 yards. Kennesaw State only has eight offensive touchdowns. Last week was a great story and a hell of a moment for the program, but I think they get killed here.

Selection: Western Kentucky -24