The system in the Caribbean Sea could soon become a tropical depression

While there is currently no tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean, that could change as early as this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.

NHC meteorologists said Thursday that a “major low pressure area” was likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the end of the week and that gradual development was possible thereafter.

“A tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week as the system drifts generally north or northwest over the central or western Caribbean Sea,” the NHC said Thursday. There is a 50 percent chance that the system will form in the next seven days.

“Should tropical development occur in the Caribbean Sea next week, there are two scenarios for movement: one toward Central America and one near the Yucatan Peninsula,” AccuWeather meteorologist Grady Gilman said. “A more northerly direction would increase the risk of impacts to the eastern Gulf Coast, likely during November 6-11.”

While the conditions that led to Hurricanes Helene and Milton remained the same, the area was kept relatively calm by strong wind shear that prevented showers and thunderstorms from forming. But that will soon be over, according to Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather's senior hurricane expert.

“Next week, most of the wind shear will shift to the north of the Caribbean, essentially creating a zone of high ocean temperatures, lots of moisture and very low wind shear that will be favorable for tropical development,” DaSilva said.

The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Patty and Rafael.

Atlantic Storm Tracker

When does hurricane season end?

A typical Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

The Atlantic Basin includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Gabe Hauari is a nationally featured news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NHC tracking system that could become a tropical depression