Bryan Norcross is tracking potential tropical activity in the Caribbean

Updated on Wednesday, October 30, 2024, 9:00 a.m

A cold front has moved into the northeastern Caribbean. A weak tropical disturbance has now arrived from the Atlantic. The combination of these systems and the strong winds behind the front are creating a very wet weather pattern over Puerto Rico and surrounding islands.

Satellite images show two areas where potential tropical development could occur.

(NOAA)

In the extreme southern Caribbean, a general low pressure combined with an upper air pattern that favors the development of thunderstorms is producing clusters of tropical downpours.

Computer model forecasts agree that a widespread low pressure area will develop by the weekend, encompassing these two areas of disturbed weather. A sharp decline in the jet stream extending into the Caribbean will help spur the development of the widespread tropical disturbance.

Long-term forecasts indicate that the initially extensive low pressure area could form into a consolidated tropical system. The National Hurricane Center says there is a moderate chance of at least one tropical depression forming next week.

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER

Medium chances for tropical development in the Caribbean next week

Computer forecasters generally agree that when the tropical system forms next week, it will slowly rotate north and then west in the Caribbean. Upper-level winds across the northern Caribbean are forecast to not experience significant strengthening for at least several days, making a strong system appear unlikely during this time.

Until some sort of unrest solidifies in the Caribbean over the weekend, forecasts for the end of next week will continue to rise everywhere. At the moment we're just keeping an eye on developments.