Hurricane season continues, with the November system on deck

As we first detailed in this newsletter last Thursday, a tropical depression or named storm could collapse as it moves through the central and western Caribbean this weekend or early next week.

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The next name on the list is Patty.

Where is the journey going?

The system was first mentioned by the National Hurricane Center late Saturday, and while the development outlook has gradually improved since then, its eventual movement has become clearer – now heading northwest next week rather than northeast as originally indicated.

This westward shift was a change we discussed in detail on Tuesday that could bring a developing system toward Central America and Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula for Tuesday through Wednesday of next week (November 5-6).

Will it be a problem for the US mainland?

The jury is still out on how organized the system will be. While wind shear in the western Caribbean next week appears to be low, as we discussed yesterday, drier, stable air moving into the Caribbean from the Gulf could be problematic for serious development. However, many scenarios show some development, so there's a good chance we'll have something to watch next week.

As of the middle of next week, high-pressure guidance suggests that whatever comes out of it will end up in the Gulf of Mexico southwest of Florida.

It's really too early to speculate well into next week, but hostile wind shear, consistent with what we would expect in the Gulf in early November, suggests it won't get very far.

This firehose is also being affected by rapidly cooling waters over the central and northern Gulf, increasing the likelihood that this will be a problem for the U.S. mainland for now.

Of course, we'll continue to follow the trends in the coming days, but for us in the US, the tropics aren't worth spooking this Halloween