Study shows Airbnb rentals linked to increased crime rates in London neighborhoods

The increasing number of houses and apartments listed as short-term rentals on Airbnb is linked to higher levels of crime such as burglaries and muggings across London, according to the most detailed study of its kind.

The latest research has found a positive relationship between the number of properties listed as Airbnb rentals and police-reported robberies and violent crime in thousands of London boroughs between 2015 and 2018.

In fact, a study from the University of Cambridge and the University of Pennsylvania suggests that a 10% increase in active Airbnb rentals in the city would be equivalent to an additional 1,000 robberies per year across London.

The work appears in criminology.

Urban sociologists say the rapid pace at which crime associated with new rentals is increasing suggests the link is more related to opportunities for crime than to loss of cohesion within communities – although both factors are likely contributing.

“We looked for the most plausible alternative explanations, from changes in police patrols to tourist hotspots to football matches,” said Dr. Charles Lanfear from the Institute of Criminology in Cambridge, co-author of the study. “The key finding that Airbnb rentals are linked to higher crime rates in London boroughs has not changed.”

“While Airbnb offers convenience and financial benefits to tourists and hosts, converting large swathes of neighborhoods into hotels with little regulation can have social consequences,” Lanfear added.

Founded in 2008, Airbnb is a giant of the digital economy. There are now more than five million hosts active on the platform in around 100,000 cities worldwide.

However, concerns that Airbnb contributes to unaffordable housing costs have sparked a backlash from residents of cities like Barcelona, ​​calling for greater regulation.

London is one of the most popular Airbnb markets in the world. An estimated 4.5 million guests stayed in a London Airbnb during the study period.

Lanfear and his co-author from the University of Pennsylvania, Prof. David Kirk, used bulk data from AirDNA: a website that searches Airbnb to provide numbers, trends and approximate geolocations for the short-term rental market.

They mapped AirDNA data from 13 calendar quarters (January 2015 to March 2018) on “Lower Layer Super Output Areas,” or LSOAs.

These are designated areas of a few streets with a population of around two thousand, used primarily for UK census purposes. There are 4,835 LSOAs in London and all were included in the study.

Home Office and Greater London Authority crime statistics for six categories – robbery, burglary, theft, anti-social behaviour, any violence and assault – were then mapped onto LSOAs populated with AirDNA data.

The researchers analyzed all forms of Airbnb rentals, but found that the link between active Airbnbs and crime was primarily due to entire property rentals, rather than guest rooms or shared rooms.

The link between active Airbnb rentals and crime was clearest for robbery and burglary, followed by theft and any violence. No connection could be found for antisocial behavior and bodily harm.

On average in London, an additional Airbnb accommodation was associated with a 2% increase in robberies within an LSOA. This relationship was 1% for thefts, 0.9% for burglaries and 0.5% for violence.

“While the potential criminogenic effect for each Airbnb rental is small, the cumulative effect of dozens in a neighborhood or tens of thousands across the city is potentially enormous,” Lanfear said.

He points out that there were an average of 53,000 active lettings in London in each calendar quarter of the study period and an average of 11 lettings per LSOA. At the extreme, one neighborhood in Soho, an area known for its nightlife, had a peak number of 318 dedicated Airbnbs – about 30% of all households in the LSOA.

The data models suggest that a 3.2% increase in all types of Airbnb rentals per LSOA would equate to a 1% increase in robberies citywide: 325 additional robberies based on the number of 32,500 robberies recorded in London in the year Year 2018.

Lanfear and Kirk extensively tested the connection between Airbnb listings and crime rates in London.

This included taking into account “criminogenic variables” such as house prices, police checks, the regularity of police patrols and even English Premier League football matches (by both including attendance in the data modeling and removing all LSOAs within a kilometer of major matches).

The duo re-ran their data models, excluding all 259 LSOAs in Zone One in central London to see if the mapping was limited to highly touristy areas with lots of Airbnb listings. The data models even took into account the seasonal ebb and flow of London tourism. The overall trends have not changed.

Before crunching the numbers, researchers speculated that a connection might be due to Airbnb's impact on “collective efficacy”: the social cohesion within a community, coupled with the willingness to intervene for the common good.

The study measured levels of collective efficacy across the city using data from both the Metropolitan Police and the Mayor of London's office, which conduct surveys on public perceptions of criminal activity and their community's likely responses.

Not only is collective efficacy across London consistently high, but it also does not explain the connection between Airbnbs and crime in the data models.

Furthermore, the impact on crime is more immediate when Airbnb listings increase than when collective efficacy is slowly eroded.

“Crime appears to increase when Airbnbs appear and remains elevated as long as they are active,” Lanfear said.

The researchers conclude that these are likely criminal opportunities. “A single Airbnb rental can create different types of criminal opportunities,” Lanfear explained. “An Airbnb rental can be an easy target, such as a tourist who is unfamiliar with the area or a property that is regularly vacant and therefore easier to break into. A temporary resident may be more likely to cause criminal harm.”

“Perpetrators could learn to return to areas with more Airbnbs to find unguarded targets,” Lanfear continued. “More dedicated Airbnb properties may mean fewer long-term residents with a personal interest in the area are willing to report potential criminal activity.”

Airbnb has taken steps to prevent crime, including some background checks and requirements for longer bookings on occasions popular for one-night parties, such as New Year's Eve.

“The fact that we are still seeing an increase in crime despite Airbnb’s efforts to curb it shows how serious the situation is,” Kirk said.

Lanfear added: “Short-term rental sites like Airbnb create incentives for landlords that lead to real estate speculation, and we can see the impact on urban housing markets. We can now see that the expansion of Airbnb may be contributing to crime rates in cities.”

“It is not the businesses or even the property owners who experience the criminal side effects of Airbnb, but rather the residents who build their lives in the neighborhood.”