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India vs New Zealand 2024/25 IND vs New Zealand 3rd Test Match Preview

Big picture: Pride (for India) and WTC points are at stake

A 2-0 series result before the final Test would have been predicted by most followers of the game when this three-match series between India and New Zealand began 15 days ago. But hardly anyone would have predicted that “2” would not be against the name of India.

It took a series of firsts for New Zealand to find themselves in the position they find themselves in. And now, as they head to Mumbai with the series under their belt, they have the chance to do the unthinkable – give India a series win. Only once have India been defeated in a series of more than one home Test – against South Africa in 1999-2000 – and never in a series of more than two Tests. Can India save itself the blushes?

While pride is at stake for the home team, there are also important WTC points up for grabs for both sides. India are still at the top of the WTC points table, but that lead has been significantly reduced by these two defeats. Another defeat here and they will have a lot of catching up to do in Australia.

For New Zealand, reaching the WTC final seemed far-fetched at the start of this series, but these two wins put them straight back into contention. A win in Mumbai and then the three-match series at home against England will set them up for another WTC final.

It took a lot of courage, determination and long periods of brilliant cricket for New Zealand to be able to dictate the conditions. They dismissed India for 46 in Bengaluru and then prevailed in the second innings when Rishabh Pant and Sarfaraz Khan cornered them. The critics would say that the conditions in Bengaluru are more suitable for New Zealand than India. So they traveled to Pune and defeated India in completely different conditions.

Rarely has a foreign spinner defeated his Indian counterparts in India. But Mitchell Santner understood the task right from the start and India had no answer to his cunning and mistake. They also have Ajaz Patel, who is at the scene of his epic ten-wicket haul of 2021.

For India, it is more about how they can bounce back from these surprising defeats and claim a win ahead of the Australia tour. On paper, this is dead rubber. In reality, it is anything but that.

Form Guide

India LLWWW (last five tests, most recent first)
New Zealand WLLLL

In the spotlight: Virat Kohli and Mitchell Santner

Virat Kohli has a problem, it's called spin, and it's been growing in recent years, especially in Asia. Since the start of 2022, Kohli has played 19 Tests in which he scored four fifties and two centuries. 12 of those were in Asia, where he only managed 150 and 100. What particularly stands out is its fallibility to spin.

In 19 innings in Asia since January 2022, he struck out 16 times, averaging 29.31. The corresponding number against the pace is three layoffs at an average of 47.00. For someone who has the old-fashioned width forward against spinners, he was often excluded from the crease. He had to turn three of the four innings in this series, against Glenn Phillips in Bengaluru and twice against Santner in Pune. On a Mumbai surface that is bound to spin, Kohli may need to do a little more to get his spin numbers up to speed.

Mitchell Santner will once again be tasked with not letting Kohli and the others escape. For someone whose Instagram bio reads 'Part-time New Zealand cricketer, full-time golfer', it was an incredible effort to take 13 wickets in Pune, the same number he had taken in the five Tests he had played previously , had managed June 2021. He had optimized his site in Pune, but seems to have recovered well. He batted and bowled in the nets two days before the Mumbai Test and will be hoping to make a similar impact as he did in Pune.

Team news: Bumrah should be rested? What about Southee?

Although the series has already been lost, there is a possibility that India will give Jasprit Bumrah a rest ahead of the five-match series against Australia starting next month. Since training was mandatory, everyone did their best to hit the nets the day before the Test, except Bumrah, who did not bowl. Gautam Gambhir said that Bumrah is fit and available. However, with a long tour ahead, India could look to give their debut short a break like they did against England in Ranchi earlier this year. Whether they replace him with a spinner in Kuldeep Yadav or a fast bowler in Mohammed Siraj remains to be seen. The batting unit should remain unchanged and Sarfaraz Khan should retain his place.

India (Probable XI): 1 Yashasvi Jaiswal, 2 Rohit Sharma (Captain), 3 Shubman Gill, 4 Virat Kohli, 5 Rishabh Pant (Week), 6 Sarfaraz Khan, 7 Ravindra Jadeja, 8 R Ashwin, 9 Washington Sundar, 10 Jasprit Bumrah /Kuldeep Yadav/Mohammed Siraj, 11 Akash Deep

Matt Henry is expected to return to the New Zealand XI after missing the Pune Test with a glute muscle complaint. He bowled at full speed two days before the Test and had a fitness test on Thursday. Henry was the choice of bowlers in Bengaluru and is likely to replace Tim Southee. There were further clues from practice the night before the game when Santner lined up on the third slip quicks in place of Southee, who often occupies that position. The rest of the eleven should remain unchanged.

New Zealand (Probable XI): 1 Tom Latham (Capt), 2 Devon Conway, 3 Will Young, 4 Rachin Ravindra, 5 Daryl Mitchell, 6 Tom Blundell (wk), 7 Glenn Phillips, 8 Mitchell Santner, 9 Matt Henry, 10 Ajaz Patel , 11 William O'Rourke

Place and conditions

The red soil surface in Mumbai is dry and will change early. It is expected to break down as the Test progresses but there should be good bounce for the fast bowlers and spinners. Mumbai is expected to be humid with temperatures likely to be in the low to mid 30s Celsius.

Statistics and interesting facts

Quotes

“I think it looks like a really good wicket. Obviously it's not really hard for anyone to judge how the wicket will behave unless the game starts on it and both teams have batted on it. But I think it looks like a decent wicket and I'm sure once the guys come in they can actually make the most of it.”
India's head coach Gautam Gambhir on the Wankhede surface

“I think so, yes. We will obviously look at the wicket but if you look at past tosses I think most teams batted first.”
captain Tom Latham is clear about what he wants to do if New Zealand win on Friday

Ashish Pant is an editor at ESPNcricinfo

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