Is China a hero or a villain in the climate fight?

China's carbon emissions could peak before the 2030 target date and its growing green economy could be an example of energy transition – even though the country relies heavily on coal and is currently the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter, experts say.

The country's seemingly contradictory position in the fight against global warming is coming into focus ahead of the 29th annual UN Climate Change Conference (COP 29), which begins November 11 in Baku, Azerbaijan.

According to the International Energy Agency, the world's second most populous country emits the most greenhouse gases in the world, reaching 12.6 gigatons in 2023.

But at the same time, it contributed up to 60% to the global increase in solar panels, wind power and electric vehicles.

Asked whether China was the problem or the solution to climate change, Nithi Nesadurai, director and regional coordinator of the climate group Climate Action Network Southeast Asia, said the country's actions presented both a challenge and an opportunity.

He said China's current issuance volume is a relatively new development.

“Historically, over a longer period of time, since the 1850s, dating back to the Industrial Revolution, the USA and the EU have emitted significantly more greenhouse gases and thus contributed disproportionately to the current climate crisis.” If you calculate emissions per capita, China is approximately half that of the US,” he explained.

Emissions are reaching their peak

Fossil fuels still made up the majority of China's energy mix last year, with about less than a quarter of energy consumption coming from clean, renewable sources, government data showed. Per capita emissions from the polluting energy sector were more than twice the global average, according to a report by the UK-based energy research and policy organization Ember.

Currently, China's goal is for emissions to peak in 2030 and reach net zero in 2060. As for the former, experts say China is on track to peak sooner than 2030, if not already.

“China's carbon emissions have fallen since March this year and continued to fall in the second and third quarters,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute and senior analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). ) told VOA News.

“After the sharp increase in 2021 to 2023, a trend reversal is emerging,” he said. “If China maintains its clean energy additions from solar and wind at the levels reached last year… China's emissions will see a structural decline, which would mean peaking in 2023 or early 2024.”

This echoed the prediction of Yiyun Cui, associate research professor and acting director of the Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland. Their studies suggest that China's emissions will peak in 2025.

“This is mainly due to the very rapid development of green technologies, particularly solar and wind energy. We are aiming for a very rapid adoption of electric vehicles. [It’s] This is also due to declining demand for many energy-intensive products such as construction materials due to the economic slowdown and restructuring,” she said.

More coal-fired power plants

One of the main sources of China's emissions is coal: according to the IEA, the country is the world's largest producer, importer and consumer of coal. In 2023, coal production reached a record high.

This comes after Beijing approved permits for new coal-fired power plants capable of producing over 100 gigawatts in 2022 and 2023, according to a report by CREA.

The impetus for increasing coal use was to ensure there was “enough capacity on the grid to handle increasing electricity peak demand, not to increase overall coal-fired electricity generation,” Myllyvirta said.

Both Myllyvirta and Cui expect the use of coal-fired power plants, including newly built ones, to gradually decline. “As China continues to build large amounts of wind and solar power, we will see this trend more clearly,” Cui said.

The environmental group Greenpeace Asia is not so convinced. “Recovery remains possible until concrete measures are taken to directly prevent further coal expansion,” the group said in a statement. “And without more proactive support for wind and solar grid connectivity, a post-peak plateau remains a risk.”

China's carbon emissions did not increase in the third quarter of 2024 despite the rise of coal power, according to CREA's latest report. The higher coal emissions were reportedly offset by a reduction in emissions caused by oil consumption and the production of steel and cement.

Renewable success

According to Global Energy Monitor, China has secured its position as the world leader in the development of renewable energy sources, with 180 gigawatts of solar and 159 gigawatts of wind power under construction. Combined, the capacity is almost twice that of the rest of the world combined and is enough to power all of South Korea.

In terms of power generation, wind and solar energy production reached a record high in China last year, accounting for 16% of total power generation, 3% more than the global average, Ember's report shows.

Beijing has been pushing national policies to boost solar and wind capacity development for several years, including setting aside deserts to build renewable energy parks, promoting rooftop solar panels and supporting offshore wind turbines.

Such centralized public policies have spurred capacity building and in turn boosted the green economy, Myllyvirta said.

“There is great enthusiasm among local governments, state banks and private investors for solar and wind projects because they are profitable, especially after the decline in the real estate market,” she said. “All of these players were looking for new investment targets and sources of growth.”

Grid challenges

While both experts were confident that China will meet its 2030 target, they were hesitant to say the same for the 2060 net zero target. It could take a long time to connect wind and solar energy to all of the country's power grids to replace fossil fuel generation, Myllyvirta said.

“Integrating these very large amounts of new solar and wind turbines into the power grid requires major changes to the way the grid works… This type of reform has taken a very long time to implement in China. They are being persecuted,” he explained.

Despite the challenges, China will play an “important role” in climate negotiations at the upcoming COP29 in Baku as it can “enable a three-fold increase in renewable electricity generation globally” – a commitment countries agreed to last December at COP28 in Dubai have agreed on CANs Nesadurai.