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Current polls on Harris vs. Trump

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It's officially election month, and presidential election polls suggest former President Donald Trump could be ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris among voters nationwide.

While national polls provide a temperature check of voters, the Electoral College system means the race will likely be decided by seven battleground states. An exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk poll on Friday shows Harris and Trump tied in Pennsylvania, the swing state with the most electoral votes.

Trump is visiting two more “blue wall” states on Friday, with rallies planned in Wisconsin and Michigan. Harris also plans to visit Wisconsin.

Here's what you should know about the status of the race.

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Trump leads Harris by 2% in new AtlasIntel poll

In a new national poll from AtlasIntel released Thursday afternoon, Trump leads Harris by two percentage points.

The poll of 3,490 likely voters across the U.S. showed Trump leading Harris 49.1% to 47.2%, with a margin of error of two percentage points. When asked to choose between candidates in a race with no third-party options, 49.6% of respondents said they would vote for Trump and 48.2% said they would vote for Harris.

The survey was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday. Further polling from AtlasIntel is expected before Election Day.

Trump gains a narrow lead in the latest TIPP poll

The TIPP tracking poll shows Trump moved ahead by one percentage point on Friday after being tied with Harris on Thursday.

The latest poll of 1,249 likely voters showed Trump leading Harris 49% to 48%. The poll, conducted Tuesday through Thursday, had a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points.

“(The poll) shows a tight and steady race, with every candidate primed for a soft, close landing,” TIPP explained. Pollsters expect the numbers to fluctuate between Harris +1 and Trump +2 in the final days before the election.

What you should consider when taking surveys

The margin of error describes how accurately we can assume that the survey results are representative of the entire population.

If a candidate's lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to the Pew Research Center.

Pew also found that the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, which significantly underestimated Trump's performance.

Kinsey Crowley is a featured news reporter at USA TODAY. Reach her at [email protected] and follow her on X and TikTok @kinseycrowley.

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