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NHC is tracking 3 disturbances in the Atlantic

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The National Hurricane Center said Friday that it is tracking three systems in the Atlantic, including one that is likely to develop into a tropical depression in the coming days.

The NHC said a “large low pressure area” was likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea the next day and that “gradual development” was possible thereafter.

But for those keeping track in the U.S., meteorologists have some good news: Because of the “hostile” winds, the storm is unlikely to move that far north.

The hurricane center gives the system a 70 percent chance of forming over the next seven days. The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Patty and Rafael.

“A tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week as the system drifts in the Caribbean Sea,” hurricane center forecasters said Friday morning.

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“Regardless of developments, locally heavy rainfall is possible over parts of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean,” the NHC said.

Could the brewing storm affect the US?

Meteorologists say most long-range models keep the system away from the U.S. due to strong winds over the Gulf of Mexico. “Hostile wind shear, consistent with what we would expect in the Gulf in early November, suggests we won't make it very far,” noted WPLG-TV meteorologist Michael Lowry in his blog Friday.

A high-pressure system expected to develop over the U.S. East Coast next week could be strong enough to push it into Central America or Mexico, according to AccuWeather.

“Although whatever comes from the system could impact parts of Mexico and Central America next week, it is unlikely that the U.S. will have a significant impact given the hostile high-altitude wind setup in early November,” Lowry said.

He added that even if the system turns north into the central or northern Gulf next week, “it will quickly be destroyed by a blazing wall of wind shear sweeping across the entire northern and central Gulf of Mexico.”

NHC monitors two other systems in the Atlantic

The hurricane center also said it is tracking two other systems in the Atlantic, although both have a low chance of forming.

The first is described by the NHC as a “low pressure trough” near Puerto Rico, producing a “large area of ​​showers and thunderstorms” over parts of the Greater Antilles and adjacent waters of the Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean.

“Slow development of this system is possible over the next few days as it moves west-northwest near the Greater Antilles,” NHC forecasters said Friday morning, although the system is expected to move into the low pressure area over the Greater Antilles after that time Caribbean is absorbed.

“Regardless of developments, locally heavy rainfall is possible over the next few days from the northern Leeward Islands westward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas,” the NHC said Friday.

The second system is described by the hurricane center as a “storm-force non-tropical depression” located about 400 miles west of the western Azores. According to the NHC, the system is producing limited shower activity and some subtropical development is possible as the system moves eastward over the next few days.

Atlantic Storm Tracker

Gabe Hauari is a nationally featured news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].

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