Why did North Korea send troops to support Russia in the fight against Ukraine?

WASHINGTON— Nearly three years after Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine, the war has brought no shortage of complicated twists and turns. But one bizarre new element stands out: North Korean troops on the battlefield.

South Korean intelligence first raised the alarm about their presence in Russia last month, and since then more evidence of the claim has been circulated at NATO headquarters in Brussels, at the United Nations and in Washington.

The development is another warning sign for Ukraine, which is already struggling. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on South Korean television Thursday that he expected North Korean troops to take part in the fight against Ukrainian forces within “days, not months.”

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a similar prediction on Thursday as he stood alongside senior South Korean officials at the State Department – and spoke hours after North Korea conducted its longest-ever intercontinental ballistic missile test – saying Russia could use North Korean forces in frontline operations in the coming days.

Here's some background on how they found themselves on the doorstep of a fight 5,000 miles from home – and what impact it could have on the region and the world.

How big is that?

Some analysts are calling this a turning point.

“The arrival of North Korean soldiers on the battlefields of Europe is a historically unprecedented event that represents a significant escalation of the largest European invasion since World War II,” wrote Peter Dickinson, editor of the Atlantic Council think tank publication UkraineAlert.

But others said a contingent of about 10,000 North Korean forces — the number cited by Blinken and the Pentagon — would do little to change the overall dynamics on the battlefield in a war in which Russian and Ukrainian military casualties are estimated to be rising is already over half a million.

Why now?

Even if it is not numerically significant, any increase in manpower can be beneficial at a time when both sides are suffering from turnover and struggling to find recruits.

The North Korean troops are believed to include some members of its special forces, and Ukrainian intelligence said the contingent included at least three senior generals. North Korea has been supplying Russia with artillery and ballistic missiles to use against Ukraine for some time, and its forces could help use those weapons more effectively.

Some analysts say the attempt to seek outside help should be seen as a sign of Moscow's weakness.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un shake hands during their meeting in Vladivostok, Russia, April 25, 2019.

(Alexander Zemlianichenko / Associated Press)

“Because Russia is not achieving significant results on the battlefield, it is resorting to withdrawing more manpower and more material and equipment from its allies,” said Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine forum at the organization’s British think tank Chatham House webinar.

However, Zelensky described it as a Russian test of the will of Ukraine's allies.

“Putin is checking the West’s response,” he said in his interview with South Korean television. “And I believe that after all these reactions, Putin will decide and increase the quota.”

Will this lead to an escalation?

Kremlin officials say NATO's longstanding aid to Ukraine is actually nothing more than support for a friendly country to aid Russia's war effort.

But throughout the war, both sides have been careful not to turn the conflict into a direct fight between Russia and NATO, whose 32 member states, including the United States, have a mutual defense pact.

North Korea increased its rhetorical vitriol on Friday during a visit to Moscow by its Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui, who met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. She said her government would stand by Russia until it wins in Ukraine, calling it a “holy war” and accusing South Korea and the United States of planning a nuclear attack on North Korea.

Meanwhile, South Korea has already said it is considering providing military support to Ukraine in response to North Korea's move.

Soldiers from the 24th Mechanized Brigade install anti-tank mines and non-explosive obstacles along the front line near the town of Khasiv Yar in Donetsk Region, Ukraine, Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024.

(Oleg Petrasiuk / Associated Press)

What about China?

All of this has put Beijing in a difficult position.

China has supported Russia over the course of the Ukraine war – even while stopping short of providing it with offensive weapons – but has reason to be wary of warming between Moscow and Pyongyang.

“China doesn’t want Russia to have so much influence over the North,” wrote Victor Cha, the Korea chairman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Furthermore, it will not benefit China if the longer-term effects of this cooperation result in greater capabilities for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, resulting in an even stronger U.S. military presence and allied capabilities in the China region.”

How does North Korea benefit?

North Korea and Russia signed a strategic partnership agreement in June and analysts said there could be a quick return for troop deployments.

That could include food aid and financial support, said Edward Howell, an analyst at Chatham House Korea, but “what Kim Jong Un wants most is advanced missile technology.”

“We know that North Korea wants to improve its capabilities in satellite technology, its conventional weapons capabilities and its missile defense systems,” he said in Friday's webinar.

South Korea has stepped up its own warnings, telling the Pentagon this week that North Korea is “very likely” to seek technology related to tactical nuclear weapons, reconnaissance satellites and nuclear submarines.

What influence does the US election have on this?

Transitions between U.S. administrations can be a tense time, especially since the last one. Traditionally, Washington has sternly but quietly warned its adversaries not to take military advantage of a perceived period of uncertainty, emphasizing that a shift does not alter U.S. readiness.

Should Kamala Harris win Tuesday's vote, there would likely be a greater element of continuity between the Biden administration and her own as she takes over from the vice presidency. If Donald Trump prevails or challenges the result, this could lead to significant volatility.

Gen. Mark Milley, then-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, described a sense of need for conflict management action in the final days of the last Trump administration.

In his testimony last year, Milley told the Senate Armed Services Committee about his phone conversations with a Chinese general in 2021, including one that took place days after the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. Milley said the calls to Gen. Li Zuocheng were intended to reassure China that the United States had no intention of carrying out an attack.

That statement came after the release of the book “Peril” — by reporters Bob Woodward and Robert Costa — which said Milley was concerned at the time about the potential for erratic behavior from the outgoing president.