Why the Premier League table after 10 games is a reliable indication of how the season will end

There is a consensus that a league table only truly 'takes shape' once clubs have played 10 of their allocated games in that season's competition.

It is an old and arbitrary threshold that we have created for ourselves, but it has value.

First, it's a nice round number. Second, it’s…double digits.

It's also 26.3158 percent of a 38-game Premier League season, which makes it seem strange to draw conclusions about the final positions each team will occupy when the music stops at the end of May.

We wouldn't take this approach in other areas of life.

For example, if you were eliminated from a basketball game after the first quarter, would you be sure the team would win? If you saw 26 percent of a movie in the theater and then went home, could you reliably predict the ending?

There will be many more twists and turns in the 2024-25 season between now and the ten full-time whistles on Sunday, May 25.

However, broadly speaking, there is statistical evidence to suggest that the field is unlikely to change dramatically from the current rankings over the next seven months. Since the first 20-team Premier League season in 1995/96, more than a third of teams (38 percent) have only moved up one place – or remained in the same position – when comparing Gameweek 10 with the final table.

Maybe we naturally trust the table after ten games because deep down we know how much it reveals about what lies ahead.

With nine games played each, the above league placement could have been predicted in the summer.

We can talk about some clubs having an easier opening game than others, but the last four finalists from last season are already back in their usual Champions League places. On the other hand, Leicester City's recent results have seen them move out of the relegation zone, but newly promoted teams Ipswich Town and Southampton are two of the bottom three. The promoted teams secured the league after ten games last season – and all three were relegated.

Leicester started the 2000/01 season well, but it didn't last long – they finished 13th (David Jones – PA Images/PA Images via Getty Images)

Every fan wants to keep their respective dreams alive throughout the season, but what does the data say about how much the standings vary over time?

A 2019 study examined match data from 1995 to 2017 and found that the team that topped the Premier League after Gameweek 10 had a 77.3 percent chance of finishing in the top three. So, dear Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal fans, you might as well start planning your 2025-26 midweek European trips now.

Last season's notable outlier was Tottenham Hotspur. Ange Postecoglou's men were at the top with eight wins and two draws after ten games, but that near-perfect record didn't last. In November they lost three games in a row and ended up in fifth place.

Nevertheless, a closer look at the results of this study from 2019 showed how stable the overall table becomes after ten game weeks.

In the Premier League, researchers found that 77 percent of the statistical variance in the league's final position was explained by Gameweek 10. By game week 20, this value rose to 87 percent. And after the 30th game week it was 94 percent.

In other words: A look at the league table in November gives a good indication of which final positions the individual clubs will take.

We can see this for ourselves by analyzing the relationship between the partial standings after each game week and the final league positions during the 2023/24 season.

For interested data people, this is calculated using a correlation analysis (Spearman rank), which provides a value (between -1 and +1) for the strength of the relationship between the sets of data points.

A higher “r-value” means a stronger relationship.

If we track this across each gameweek, we can see the relationship getting stronger – but notice how stable things are looking just a quarter of the way through the campaign.

To be clear, the smaller changes in league positions can be the most crucial. The difference between a team finishing first or second is not mathematically significant, but its significance is immeasurable. On the last day of the match we are likely to see the drama of the title fights, the European push and the relegation battles, but the more comprehensive analysis of the league standings shows that a good forecast can be made early on.

The implications of this are interesting.

While it may seem like club owners seem a little overzealous in parting ways with struggling managers before the Christmas period, the data suggests that things are unlikely to change dramatically in the weeks and months that follow.

We've come to terms with the chaotic desperation that comes with clubs sacking a manager, but the message is simple: it makes mathematical sense to take action sooner rather than later.

While the standings change less than some might think, there will continue to be memorable examples of teams experiencing a significant decline – or a significant increase – after ten games.

When you look at the Premier League era, a few seasons stand out.

Last season, Tottenham's aforementioned slump was most noticeable at the top end of the table, but there was also a notable turnaround in another part of London.

Brentford were mid-table before a drop in performance saw them settle for a disappointing 16th place. After the tenth matchweek, neighbors Chelsea were just below them, but a strong end to the season saw Mauricio Pochettino's side move up five places and qualify for the UEFA Conference League.

Those with longer memories will recall 2008-09, when newly promoted Hull City won six of their first nine games – including away to Arsenal and Spurs – and found themselves “pushing for a European place” just to winning two from their remaining 29 and failing to survive, finishing in 17th place, one point above the relegation zone.

Meanwhile, Tottenham were bottom of the table after Gameweek 10, having suffered the worst start in their history (two points from eight games). Harry Redknapp replaced Juande Ramos as manager at the end of October and took them to eighth place – the biggest change in the Premier League era.

The fact is, you probably do Do Remember these examples because they are so unusual.

Here's another one, from 2005-06.

Charlton Athletic fans need no reminding of their Darren Bent-inspired early 'title push', which saw them win their first four league games, only to fall to a more realistic 13th place after the final round of games the following May . It is a nosedive equaled only by Hull in 2008-09 in the 32-year Premier League era, with no team falling more than 11 places.

Manchester City also appeared to have a strong finish in the top half of the league in the autumn of 2005, ahead of Sheikh Mansour, before Stuart Pearce's side fell eight places to 15th at the end of the season.

These funny quirks of yesteryear highlight the caveats that need to be considered in the larger context of a season's final rankings.

The athlete has previously analyzed the impact of match difficulty on skewing the table at the start of a season and positive match play can appear more pronounced than the quality of a squad would suggest. A team's over- or under-performance can also lead to a false perception of true performance. Over the course of a whole season, you can assume – although not guaranteed – that the quirks of the first few games will even out.

Nevertheless, the numbers don't lie. Even though teams don't even have to play all 19 opponents once, the evidence suggests that much of the variation in the league table can be explained after just a quarter of the season.

This means that 14th-placed Manchester United, among others, still has a lot of work to do.

(Top photos: Getty Images; Design: Eamonn Dalton)