Fantasy playbook: NFL Week 9 scores, projections, matchups

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 9, which kicked off Thursday with the Texans at the Jets.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

Jump to:
DAL-ATL | MIA-BUF | LV-CIN | LAC-CLE | NE-TEN | WAS-NYG
NO-CAR | DEN-BAL | JAX-PHI | CHI-ARI | DET-GB | LAR-SEA | IND-MIN | TB-KC

Projected Score: Falcons 27, Cowboys 21

Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, CeeDee Lamb, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, Jake Ferguson

Fresh off a four-TD, 28.6-point effort against Tampa Bay last week, Kirk Cousins has produced 63.0 fantasy points and eight touchdowns in two games against the Bucs, but a total of just 62.0 points and six touchdowns in his other six games combined. The boom/bust production is concerning, but Cousins is sure to rack up some yardage (he has 225-plus passing yards in seven straight games) and has yet another strong matchup against a Dallas defense that has allowed the sixth-most QB fantasy points and the highest YPA (8.2) this season. The past two QBs Dallas faced (Jared Goff, Brock Purdy) both cleared 25 fantasy points. Cousins is a strong Week 9 streamer.

Over/Under: 48.1 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Falcons 71% (4th highest)

Projected Score: Bills 28, Dolphins 22

Lineup locks: Josh Allen, De’Von Achane, James Cook, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Dalton Kincaid

After posting a 4-66-1 receiving line on five targets in his Buffalo debut in Week 7, Amari Cooper was held to just a single 3-yard reception on two targets in Week 8. On the plus side, his snap share increased from 33% to 51% and he ran 24 routes, which was only two off the team lead. Regardless, the veteran continues to take a back seat to Keon Coleman (7 targets on 58 snaps last week) and Khalil Shakir (10 targets on 40 snaps), which is problematic for his short-term fantasy output. Cooper’s playing time figures to increase further this week, but he (along with Shakir and Coleman) should be viewed as only a flex option against a Miami defense that has allowed the third-fewest WR receptions and WR fantasy points.

Over/Under: 50.6 (highest)
Win Probability: Bills 71% (5th highest)

Projected Score: Bengals 24, Raiders 15

Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Brock Bowers

Jakobi Meyers returned from injury Sunday and posted a solid 6-52-1 receiving line on seven targets. Meyers had nine-plus targets in his prior three games and has 17-plus fantasy points in two of his past four outings. Meyers, who scored 10 touchdowns last season, has finished as a top-30 fantasy receiver in each of the past three seasons and has a real shot to make it four in a row as the Raiders’ clear top receiver. He’s a WR3 option this week in a solid matchup against the Bengals.

Over/Under: 39.7 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 81% (highest)

Projected Score: Chargers 22, Browns 18

Lineup locks: J.K. Dobbins, Ladd McConkey, David Njoku

Granted it was an excellent matchup, but Jameis Winston’s debut led to a breakout for the Cleveland WR room. The headliner was second-year receiver Cedric Tillman, who followed an 8-81-0 showing on 12 targets in Week 7 with a 7-99-2 line on nine targets in Week 8. Tillman, a 2023 third-round pick, leads all wide receivers in fantasy points over the past two weeks and very well could be on the verge of a breakout now that Cooper is no longer in the picture.

Jerry Jeudy (5-79-0 on eight targets) and Elijah Moore (8-85-0 on 12 targets) also came up big last week and are worth considering for your roster, but keep in mind that the matchup is much tougher this week. Granted they haven’t faced much volume (a league-low 95 targets), but the Chargers have allowed the fewest WR fantasy points this season, with no opposing wide receiver reaching 20 points.

Over/Under: 39.2 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 65% (8th highest)

Projected Score: Titans 18, Patriots 18