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Hurricane Center Invest 97L update, route path and spaghetti models

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A Hurricane Hunter aircraft was expected to be sent to the western Caribbean on Sunday, meteorologists said in their early morning Tropical Weather Outlook, to obtain data on Invest 97L, which has been observed for days.

National Hurricane Center forecasters say the storm will most likely form within the next 48 hours.

NHC forecasters believe there is an 80% chance of Invest 97L developing over the southwest Caribbean Sea in the next two days. A system further east, near Puerto Rico, is moving east and could produce thunderstorms over the Greater Antilles before being absorbed into Invest 97L.

AccuWeather meteorologists said Sunday that a tropical storm was likely to develop by Monday.

Subtropical Storm Patty moved quickly eastward Sunday toward the Azores, which is not under a tropical storm warning. The center of Patty is expected to shift near the southeastern Azores today.

There is no threat of landfall on the U.S. mainland today, and hurricane strikes in November remain rare.

“The most reliable forecasts indicate that the western flank of this controlling high pressure still extends across the Gulf, allowing a potential storm to move west or northwest into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico,” said Ryan Truchalat, meteorologist and owner of Weathertiger, who The USA TODAY Network provides reports for.

“Some members of the model ensemble have a faster and stronger frontal passage, in which case a storm could theoretically turn northeast toward Florida near the Yucatan or Cuba late next week or the following weekend.”

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The next storms mentioned are Rafael and Sara.

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Here are details about what's available starting November 3rd at 5 a.m.:

Where is Subtropical Storm Patty? Is a hurricane heading toward Florida?

Location: 37.5 N, 25.5 W, approximately 125 miles southeast of Lajes Air Base, Azores

Maximum continuous winds: 50 miles per hour

Current movement: East at 18 mph

Minimum central pressure: 990MB

The center of subtropical storm Patty was located near latitude 37.5 north and longitude 25.5 west. The storm is moving eastward at about 18 mph and is expected to move east to east-northeast over the next few days.

According to the forecast, the center of Patty is expected to move near the southeastern Azores in the next few hours. Maximum sustained winds will be around 50 miles per hour, with higher gusts. Weakening is expected over the next few days and Patty is forecast to reach a post-tropical low today or early Monday.

Winds of 40 miles per hour extend outward up to 175 miles, mostly to the south and southwest of the center.

Dangers for properties:

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in parts of the Azores today.

AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches in the Azores through Sunday.

SURFING: The waves generated by Patty will impact the Azores in the next few days. These waves can create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Conditions for tropical development near Florida. Will Invest 97L become Tropical Storm Rafael?

The Caribbean waters are warm enough for tropical development, even this late in the season. But it's the wind shear, or disruptive breezes, that meteorologists say they're watching to determine what comes next. AccuWeather expects a tropical storm to form by Monday night.

“The brewing tropical storm is expected to make a northeasterly turn over Jamaica and Cuba next week, bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to these islands. It is not out of the question that it will become a hurricane in the Caribbean before reaching Jamaica or Cuba,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alan Reppert said.

There are several options on the table for the path of the brewing tropical storm.

“Future developments will depend on the movement of a depression in the jet stream more than 1,000 miles away over the U.S. next week,” said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.

“If this jet stream tilt advances far enough east, it will tend to trap the tropical structure and potentially drag it over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and into southern Florida,” Rayno explained. “But if the dip of the jet stream lags westward, the tropical structure could advance into the western or central Gulf of Mexico, where it could threaten areas to the west such as Louisiana or Texas. There is also the possibility that it continues due west and decreases over southern Mexico.”

The status of Invest 97L Caribbean

Invest 97L in the Southwest Caribbean: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean are associated with an extensive low pressure area.

This system is expected to develop gradually and a tropical depression is expected to form over the next few days as the system moves generally north-northwest over the central and western Caribbean Sea.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible in parts of the adjacent land areas of the Western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba.

Stakeholders in the western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings may be required for portions of the area later today or this evening. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to survey this system later today.

  • Chance of education within 48 hours: high, 80 percent.
  • Chance of development over 7 days: high, 90 percent.

What else is there and how likely are they to intensify?

Near the Greater Antilles: A low pressure system a few hundred miles east of the southeastern Bahamas continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, as well as gusty winds over the adjacent waters of the southwest Atlantic.

Slow development of this system is possible during approximately the daytime as it moves west toward the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. This system is expected to integrate with Invest 97L over the Caribbean Sea by late Monday, ending its development chances.

  • Chance of emergence within 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
  • Chance of occurrence over 7 days: low, 10 percent.

Who is likely to be affected?

Forecasters expect 1 to 2 inches of rain to fall across Jamaica as far north as Cuba. Heavier rainfall of 4 to 8 inches may occur near the storm's track over western Cuba and central Jamaica, with an AccuWeather high of 14 inches in the highest terrain.

“This rain may cause flash flooding, landslides and difficult travel in parts of Jamaica and Cuba,” Reppert said.

As the tropical storm moves north and gains strength, wind gusts will increase, with gusts of 40 to 60 mph forecast.

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When is Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

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(This story has been updated to add new information.)

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