Top picks from the NFL betting splits for Sunday November 3rd

Today we have a rich NFL Week 9 Sunday slate with 13 games to choose from. Let's examine where the smart money is using our VSiN NFL betting splits. These come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10 minutes.

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The Chargers (4-3) have won two of their last three games and just defeated the Saints 26-8, comfortably covering the home favorites by 7.5 points. Meanwhile, the Browns (2-6) lost just five games with a 29-24 victory over the Ravens and won as a home team by 7.5 points. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public is leaning toward the Chargers, with 55% of spread bets scoring with Los Angeles. Although we received the most spread bets, in Los Angeles we saw a drop from -4.5 to -1.5 or even -1 in some stores. This indicates a significant reversal of the line for Cleveland, as the line has consistently moved in their favor all week despite them being the unfavored team. We also didn't see any noticeable buybacks with the Chargers. Conference home dogs scoring 4 points or less are 141-119 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2018. For those worried about a close game that may not cover the spread, is Cleveland also in a first-class “Wong teaser”. Spot (+1.5 to +7.5) passing through the top key numbers 3 and 7. In terms of total, the bet opens at 39.5 and is raised to 42.5. However, we are now seeing some excessive buybacks below 42.5. The bottom gets 50% of the bets but 68% of the dollars, a sharply contrarian “lower stakes, higher dollars” betting split. Bill Vinovich, the head referee, is historically outnumbered by 58%. The Chargers are 6-1 against the minors this season, making them the best minor team in the NFL. Those looking for a second part of the Wong teaser might consider increasing the overall score from 42.5 to 48.5 and going below that for added security.

The Rams (3-4) have won two games in a row and just defeated the Vikings 30-20, winning as home dogs by 2.5 points overall. Conversely, the Seahawks (4-4) have lost four of their last five games and were narrowly beaten by the Bills 31-10 as they failed to cover as home 3-point dogs. The early opener for this game was Seahawks -3 at home. However, after their poor performance against Buffalo and the Rams' big win over the Vikings, we quickly saw that line change to Los Angeles -1.5. Some stores even reached Rams values ​​of -2.5 during the week. Essentially, all moves and liabilities were geared toward Los Angeles as a dog-versus-favorite system contest. The Rams receive 72% of the spread bets and 74% of the spread dollars, suggesting that both Pro and Joe have support from Sharps and the betting public alike. Road favorites are 26-16 ATS (62%) with a 17% ROI this season. Those looking to reduce the risk of a possible close win that might not cover the spread could opt to play Los Angeles on the moneyline at -125. The road favorites are 32-12 (73%) with an outright ROI of 14% this season. The Rams enjoy a notable “rest vs. fatigue” advantage as they last played on Thursday while the Seahawks played on Sunday. Los Angeles also has corresponding betting value as a short favorite in a game with a high point total (48), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the favorite to cover the number. Clay Martin, the lead referee, historically has an ATS of 59% for the Reading team. The Seahawks are dealing with a number of injuries and are without starting WR DK Metcalf, T Abraham Lucas and TE Noah Fant.

The Colts (4-4) just saw their two-game winning streak end, falling to the Texans 23-20 but holding a 5-point lead. On the other hand, the Vikings (5-2) have lost two games in a row, narrowly losing to the Rams 30-20 and losing outright as 2.5-point away favorites. That line started with Minnesota listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public sees a “real” spot for the Vikings and 70% of spread bets have the points coming with Minnesota at home. However, despite the one-sided support, we see the Vikings drop from -6.5 to -5.5. Some deals even have a value of -5. This indicates a significant reverse line movement by the Colts as their line has shifted in their favor despite it being an unpopular play. This move also coincided with the news that the Colts will be using Joe Flacco at quarterback instead of Anthony Richardson, signaling that the market believes Flacco is an upgrade. Indianapolis has notable contrarian value as they only receive 30% of the spread bets in a nationally televised, high-stakes Sunday Night Football showdown. Sweet Spot Street Dogs with 4.5 or more points are 21-13 ATS (62%) with an ROI of 18% this season. Primetime Dogs have an ATS of 129-108 (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2020. Shawn Smith, the lead referee, has a 58% ATS for the road team historically.