Sunday Night Football odds, picks, best bets

Last week was a whirlwind for the Colts, who decided to bench second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson and roll with veteran Joe Flacco as the starter.

The Vikings, meanwhile, are on a two-game losing streak but had a short off week without Thursday Night Football to prepare for their Week 9 game.

Can Flacco give the Colts a spark? Or will Minnesota start well at home?

Let’s dive into the matchup and find out.

When the Colts have the ball

There's been a lot of talk about Flacco as an improvement over Richardson, and it's fair to say the veteran has been far more efficient this season. Flacco ranks seventh among 42 qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE, while Richardson ranks 42nd.

However, it is also important to note that over 40 percent of Flacco's dropbacks this season have come against the Jaguars, who rank last in pass defense (DVOA). This matchup will be a big challenge as the Vikings rank first in pass defense (DVOA).

Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores loves to crank up the blitz — which will cause problems for an immobile Flacco behind an offensive line that may be missing left tackle Bernhard Raimann, who is in the concussion protocol.

Flacco has averaged just 4.4 yards per attempt against the Lightning this year, ranking 38th out of 39 qualified quarterbacks.

When the Vikings have the ball

Kevin O'Connell has orchestrated an impressive offense this season around veteran quarterback Sam Darnold.

The Vikings were incredibly strong early in games, ranking among the top seven teams in the NFL in EPA per game and first-half success rate. However, this drops to 23rd and 25th in the second half. The scripted portion of the games went extremely well for O'Connell and Darnold.

The Colts defense has been playing well lately, but it's still a relatively minor defense led by Gus Bradley. Indianapolis ranks in the top five in zone coverage rate, operates primarily in Cover 3 and rarely sends extra rushers, ranking 26th in blitz rate.

Top wide receivers have burned through this secondary this year, and Justin Jefferson could be in for a big game in prime time.

Betting on the NFL?

Losing left tackle Christian Darrisaw will hurt the Vikings' offense, but their front office quickly responded by acquiring Cam Robinson. The Colts are a below-average pressure unit and Darnold ranks fourth in the NFL in yards per attempt from a clean pocket.

Final verdict

With the extra time to prepare for this game, I gave the Vikings coaching staff a significant advantage over a Colts team with significant distractions this week.

O'Connell should have a flawless game plan for Bradley's defense, while Flores will send house against Flacco, who has had major issues with the blitz.

I see the biggest advantage in the first half of this game, where the Vikings rank top seven in EPA per play on offense and defense. The Colts, meanwhile, rank 27th in first-half offensive EPA and 14th in defense.

I'm backing the Vikings to cover the spread in the first half.

Best bet: Vikings first half -3 (-120 or better).| (-120, ESPN BET)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Jacob Wayne covers college football and the NFL for the New York Post. It is up 84.5 units in both sports, with an ROI of 6.27%.