close
close

Despite Sinwar's death, Israel still has much to achieve in the war

With the elimination of Yahya Sinwar, there may now be, for the first time, a slightly better chance of an agreement over the hostages and an end to the fighting in Gaza, unlike before.

Although recent Doha talks appear to have failed to make progress due to Hamas' continued recalcitrance, efforts by Israel and mediators continue.

As the US has confirmed more than once, Hamas has so far rejected all the compromise proposals presented to it by the mediators or by President Joe Biden, demanding, among other things, guarantees for the maintenance of its rule over Gaza and a complete and immediate withdrawal of Israeli troops.

In addition, there were conditions regarding the number and description of Palestinian terrorists to be released by Israel, while the release of the hostages was to be gradual.

Essentially, Hamas's intention was to create a situation in which it could come back another day and pursue its goal of collapsing the foundations of the State of Israel and wreaking havoc on its citizens.

Former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar looks on at an anti-Israel rally in Gaza City in 2022. (Source: MOHAMMED SALEM/REUTERS)

However, this was not always the distorted picture presented to the Israeli public and the families of the hostages.

Concerned families and loved ones indeed have every right to say whatever they want, even if it is offensive or stupid, in the belief that it will promote the release of their loved ones – and this also applies to the crowds that surround each other Gathered in Hostages Square in the evening – but not cynical politicians and their PR agents who have created a false narrative similar to George Orwell's in 1984, perversely claiming that the fate of the hostages actually depends on the Israeli government and not on Sinwar and thus plays directly into his hands.

Every well-organized protest rally in Kaplan, in front of the Knesset or in Caesarea, every blockage of the Ayalon Highway, every demanding “Now” poster reinforced Sinwar's unwillingness to compromise – and endangered and continues to endanger the lives of the hostages.

A look back into history

Looking at history, while Winston Churchill had to make difficult, even tragic decisions several times during World War II about whether to jeopardize the war effort or put people's lives at risk, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chose to avoid a moral and political confrontation Dilemma of this kind by achieving both goals, the victory over Hamas and the associated release of the hostages.

After October 7, 2023 (and the emphasis on “after”), the Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip and the north will be carried out according to a structured strategic plan.

Stay up to date with the latest news!

Subscribe to the Jerusalem Post newsletter

Broadly speaking, their aim, subject to partial or temporary changes due to developments and events, including diplomatic events, is to significantly improve Israel's long-term security while safely returning the hostages and residents in both the south and the north in the shortest possible time to their houses.

A no less important goal is to restore Israel's deterrence against Iran and its proxies and strengthen its standing in the region.

Progress has already been made towards these two objectives.

Sinwar's death and the manner in which he met his end – abandoned, humiliated and forsaken – may have one side, perhaps even more than one, on the path to an end to the fighting in Gaza and acceptable settlements for Israel Post-war situation changed there. But if not, the war will continue.

Although the prime minister was right to postpone discussions on Gaza's political status until the end of the war, Sinwar's demise and the advanced dismantling of Hamas's military capabilities have created a situation in which Israel may soon face different paths and scenarios regarding political status Gaza must be considered – despite the unclear political situation in the US and perhaps because of it – to ensure that Israel will put forward its own ideas rather than react to suggestions from others, both friendlier and less friendly.

In addition to securing the strategically important Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors, this would probably also include the creation of a security zone on the eastern and northern sides of the Gaza Strip as well as ensuring freedom of intelligence and, if necessary, military action in Gaza, similar to Judea and Samaria.

The compounded Israeli failures that set the stage for October 7 allowed Hamas to carry out its murderous plan but failed in all of its strategic objectives.

Although Israel was severely damaged, it did not collapse as Hamas had expected, as can be seen, among other things, from documents published in the New York Times and Haaretz, which show that Hamas believed that this was due to the division and polarization in Israel would happen to society.

A speedy recovery

The opposite happened; The IDF quickly recovered and launched a powerful ground, air and sea offensive (which, incidentally, also contradicted earlier theories about the alleged futility of operations in densely populated areas). Even the refusal to serve has disappeared, at least for now.

Under President Biden, the United States – which Hamas and its Iranian partners believed, despite occasional disagreements with Israel, would be hampered by the upcoming elections – jumped immediately and forcefully into the breach.

One of Sinwar's other goals was to disrupt moves to establish comprehensive diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which would lead to broad geopolitical integration of the Middle East under US leadership.

Although negotiations on this issue have stopped, there are signs that they will resume in the future.

Biden and Netanyahu have had a long-standing relationship that is not without occasional ups and downs, but solutions have been found on important issues, such as the IDF's invasion of Gaza or taking control of the Philadelphia Corridor and Rafah, although there are also There were examples to the contrary, such as the strong pressure on Israel to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza without making it dependent on the release of the hostages.

Taking everything into account, including Sinwar's departure from the scene, it is still difficult to say with certainty what the full dimensions and impact of this will be.

Because Sinwar modeled Hamas on himself, some experts believe the organization itself could disappear or at least lose much of its influence with his death.

Another view is that there will be divisions not only between Gaza and the outside world, but also within the Gaza Strip itself, with some factions focused on rebuilding Hamas's organizational and functional capabilities, while others may still pursue terrorism against Israel want to continue more vigorously in order to preserve the “legacy” of a leader who saw himself as the new Saladin (who was not an Arab) and who opposed the existence of Israel not only practically but also ideologically and on the basis of faith.

They now pose a danger to the hostages.

While the elimination of Sinwar should be viewed as an important victory, it should not be seen as a complete achievement of Israel's security and peace strategy.

Possible developments in the coming weeks could indicate whether there will also be larger geopolitical outcomes.

The writer, a former MK, was ambassador to the US from 1990 to 1993 and 1998 to 2000.



You may also like...