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GOP gains Democratic advantages

Topline

With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, early voting is underway in nearly every state across the country — and while there's no consensus yet on who's ahead among early voters, Republicans are narrowing Democrats' lead in early voting.

Important facts

Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump among early voters, according to two new polls, including a Forbes/HarrisX poll released Wednesday that has her leading 60% to 33% and a USA Today/Suffolk University poll , which shows she is ahead at 63%. to 34%.

However, in the USA Today/Suffolk poll, Trump leads 52% to 35% among those planning to vote on Election Day.

More than 18.5 million voters, including more than 9.3 million Democrats and 7.8 million Republicans, voted early on Oct. 23, according to data collection firm TargetSmart (not all states report a party breakdown of early voting totals). voted, compared to 39.8 million who had already voted early two weeks before Election Day in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic prevented in-person voting.

The higher number of Democrats voting early does not necessarily mean an advantage for Harris, as Democrats tend to be more supportive of early voting than Republicans – a gap that has widened in recent years as Trump falsely claimed Widespread fraud in mail-in voting was said to have spread across the U.S. However, after his defeat in 2020, he has since reversed course and urged his supporters to vote in any way they can.

Trump's push for early voting appears to be working, as data shows fewer Democrats and more Republicans voting early than in 2020.

Of the 25 states that track and report party registration among early voters, 43% of early voters are Democrats and 35% are Republicans, according to data from the University of Florida Election Lab as of Wednesday.

In 2020, 53% of early voters were Democrats and 25% were Republicans in the 17 states that recorded and reported party affiliation at that time that year, according to Florida Election Lab data for the week ending October 18, 2020 – 16 days before the election.

More than twice as many Republicans (52%) voted early in Nevada as Democrats (27%). That's according to State Department data for the first four days of early voting, which ended Tuesday.

More Republicans also voted early in the battleground states of Arizona, North Carolina and Pennsylvania than at this point in 2020, CNN reported, citing figures from data firm Catalist, election officials and Edison Research.

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Cons

One sign that could be a positive indicator for Democrats is the number of new voters registered since 2022: 49% of the 17.82 million are Democrats, 34% are Republicans and 17% are unaffiliated, CBS reported last Wednesday Citing TargetSmart data. According to Gallup, voting enthusiasm among Democrats has also increased since Harris entered the race. It rose from 55% in March to 78% in August, according to Gallup, while enthusiasm among Republicans increased slightly from 59% to 64% then.

Crucial quote

“Polls will tell us how people will vote, but not who will vote,” TargetSmart senior adviser Tom Bonier warned CBS, adding that early voting data “won’t tell us who will win, but it will is good.” Breadcrumbs.”

tangent

More than 1.5 million voters cast early ballots in Georgia during the first two days of early voting last week, starting Tuesday, breaking personal records. As of Wednesday morning, more than 312,000 people had voted by mail and more than 1.9 million had voted in person, according to the Georgia Secretary of State's Office. According to the State Board of Elections, North Carolina voters also broke the state's record on the first day of early voting on Thursday, when 353,166 ballots were cast, despite fears that the devastation from Hurricane Helene would hinder access to the polls would. Thursday's numbers beat the previous record set in 2020 by 1.3%.

Big number

46%. That's the share of voters surveyed by Gallup in September who said they have already voted in the 2024 election or plan to do so early, including 46% of Democrats, 43% of independent voters and 31% of Republicans. The share of Democrats voting early has increased slightly from 44% in 2016, while the share of independents has increased from 35% and Republican participation in early voting has fallen from 42%.

Important background

Trump and Harris enter Election Day in a dead heat. Polls show there is a virtual tie between the two, including in the seven swing states that are expected to decide the election. Trump leads in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, while Harris is ahead in Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania is tied, according to Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, although neither candidate has a lead of more than two points in a battleground state.

What you should pay attention to

Trump and his allies are preparing to challenge the election results if he loses, which Trump said could only happen if Democrats cheat. Trump has also said he will only accept the results of the election if it is “fair and legal and a good election,” leaving open the possibility that he could plead wrongdoing if he loses. Republicans have already filed dozens of voting rights lawsuits in the 2023-2024 cycle to challenge voting protocols in battleground states, while Trump has asserted his legal troubles, Harris has replaced Biden at the top of the ticket, and any negative coverage of him in the race all amounts to election interference .

When is election day?

November 5th.

How do early voting totals this year compare to previous elections?

The early voting total pales in comparison to 2020 numbers, when the pandemic drove up turnout in mail-in voting, but is slightly higher than early voting in the 2022 midterm elections, which is also typical as voter turnout in presidential elections historically higher is years.

How many people voted in swing states?

In the seven swing states most likely to decide the election outcome, more than 6.3 million people voted early. In North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania, more than 3.1 million Democrats have voted, while more than 2.6 million Republicans and more than 500,000 independent voters have already cast ballots, according to TargetSmart. Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin do not report party breakdowns for early voting.

Which states have started early voting via absentee or absentee ballots?

All states except Oklahoma.

Does every state offer in-person early voting?

No. Alabama, Mississippi and New Hampshire offer early absentee voting only with a legitimate reason.

Is absentee voting offered in every state?

Yes, but nine states – Connecticut, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and West Virginia – require an acceptable reason for absentee voting.

Further reading

Here's how Trump and his allies are navigating potential election loss challenges (Forbes)

Swing state polls for the 2024 election: Trump leads in Arizona and Georgia, Harris leads in North Carolina (Update) (Forbes)

Trump vs. Harris polls 2024: Trump leads in Fox News poll – Harris leads in two other polls (Forbes)

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