close
close

A look at who voted early in Texas for the 2024 election cycle

The total appears to be lagging behind the 2020 election, with older Texans outvoting their younger counterparts.

play

If the number of early voters is a barometer of political enthusiasm in a given election, excitement in Texas appears to be somewhat subdued for the 2024 cycle.

And if you're a Republican hoping to go to bed smiling after all the votes are counted Tuesday night or in the early hours of Wednesday, you might be encouraged by the drop in early voting numbers four years ago. If you're a Democrat hoping to turn Texas blue, or at least a little more purple, you're probably sweating a little.

Early voting ended Friday, and here's what we know from the numbers on all but the last day Texans could vote before Election Day.

Just over 8.1 million voted early, in person or by mail. That's about 40% of the 18.6 million people registered to vote in the state. But on the second-to-last day of early voting in 2020, just over 9 million people had voted or cast a ballot by mail.

Four years ago, not only was the number larger, but the number of voters was also smaller: When Republican President Donald Trump was challenged by Democrat Joe Biden, there were just 17 million registered voters in Texas.

More: Why Senator Cornyn says leaders must accept the voters' choice and unite the country after the 2024 election

Trump won Texas by about 5.6 percentage points in 2020. That was less than the 9-point lead he enjoyed in his 2016 duel with Hillary Clinton, and significantly less than the 16-point lead Republican Mitt Romney had in Texas four years earlier.

So, heading into the 2024 cycle, Texas Democrats needed to be encouraged by the trend line.

But a closer look at early numbers from Texas political data guru Derek Ryan suggests any Democratic optimism should be tempered.

First, as of Friday, 32% of all early voters had participated in the Republican primary in the past. The share of Democratic repeat voters was only 21%. Ryan said in his analysis that this suggests a one-million-vote GOP advantage when all the first numbers are added up.

The remainder of the early voters were those who only voted in a general election (34%) and those with no voting experience in Texas (10%).

If Democrats are looking for a silver lining in the numbers, they would point to Trump's public denigration of early voting and mail-in voting in particular four years ago, which likely encouraged many of his supporters to wait until Election Day . This cycle, the former president has embraced both early voting options, so the large early turnout could reduce the number of voters on Election Day.

Democrats might also be happy about the fact that women outvoted men early on by about eight percentage points, since the Democrats' base is made up of female voters. However, in Texas, registered female voters consistently outnumber male voters, and Republicans have maintained a firm grip on the state in election after election.

The age breakdown of early voters should give Republicans a boost. Texans ages 50 and older, who lean toward the GOP, made up about 55% of Friday's early turnout. Voters under 30, who are heavily courted by Democratic candidates, made up just 21%.

Among those aged 30 to 50, the proportion was 34% – and perhaps the biggest question mark in terms of how this voting bloc is segmented and whether the voting behavior of 30-year-olds will match that of people over 50.

Another piece of the age puzzle was the turnout of all registered voters in the various groups. According to Ryan's analysis, older voters appear to be the most energetic. Of the registered voters between the ages of 50 and 69, more than half had already voted by Thursday. In the group of people over 70, 58% voted.

But young voters can't seem to keep up with their parents and grandparents when it comes to voting. The participation rate of voters between the ages of 30 and 49 was 33%; and for the group of 18 to 29 year olds the rate was 23%.

More: Will Texas be in play on November 5th? Unsure. For this reason, there could be a lot going on after the election

Voter turnout for most subgroups was higher in 2020 before the last day of early voting.

Anyone who has attended a campaign event or seen a clip or two on video in the 2024 cycle has heard the phrase, “This is the most important election of our lifetime.” Democrats say it; Republicans say so. Senate candidates are probably as likely to say this as presidential candidates.

And on the ballot they all say it with great conviction and perhaps even greater concern. But judging by early voter turnout in Texas, the one message that politicians of almost all stripes seem to agree on isn't as profound as many would have expected.

You may also like...