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Future Tropical Storm Rafael triggers hurricane warnings

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  • A disturbance in the Caribbean is likely to become Tropical Storm Rafael sometime Monday.
  • The system could develop into a hurricane in the western Caribbean.
  • Once the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, it is expected to weaken due to strong wind shear, dry air and cooler water.
  • Future developments in the Gulf are highly uncertain, but it could at least lead to more rain in Florida and parts of the southeastern US

A disturbance in the Caribbean is forecast to become Tropical Storm Rafael on Monday, and it could become a hurricane before moving into the Gulf of Mexico, where conditions will be less favorable for the system later this week, to maintain this intensity.

Here is the current status of this system: The disturbance was classified as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This process allows the NHC to issue a tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning for a system that has not yet developed but is expected to impact land areas within 48 hours.

(​MORE: What is a Potential Tropical Cyclone?)

Here is the latest intensification and track forecast: This system is expected to become a tropical depression today and Tropical Storm Rafael shortly thereafter. Depending on how quickly it organizes, it could become a hurricane somewhere near the Cayman Islands or western Cuba Tuesday through Wednesday.

Future Rafael is forecast to experience some weakening in the Gulf of Mexico as it will likely experience increasingly adverse high-altitude winds, some dry air, and cooling Gulf of Mexico waters.

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(The red shaded area shows the potential track of the center of the tropical cyclone. It is important to note that for any tropical cyclone, impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) typically extend beyond the forecast track spread.)

What we know about future possible impacts from Rafael along the U.S. Gulf Coast: In short: the forecast remains highly uncertain.

“The system is forecast to move into the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, but given the significant uncertainties surrounding long-term forecast direction and intensity, it is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, may occur. Residents of this area should do so.” “Monitor regularly for updates to the forecast,” the NHC said Monday.

However, starting Wednesday, Rafael could at least help increase rainfall in Florida and other parts of the southeastern U.S. by drawing tropical moisture northward. It is still too early to determine further details.

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What you can expect from this system in the Caribbean: Heavy rains could cause flash floods and mudslides early this week from the Tiburon Peninsula in southern Haiti to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and parts of western and southern Cuba.

A hurricane warning has been issued for the Cayman Islands. This means that hurricane conditions (winds of 74 miles per hour or more) are to be expected. Hurricane-force winds could hit the Cayman Islands as early as Tuesday afternoon.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for Jamaica, meaning tropical storm conditions (winds of 39 to 73 miles per hour) are expected. These conditions are expected to occur in Jamaica this evening.

Some storm surge flooding is also possible in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.

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(A warning is issued if a tropical storm or hurricane is possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued if these conditions are expected within 36 hours.)

Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist at Weather.com for over 10 years, having started his career at The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.

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