The battle for Congress is as close as the battle for the White House Elections 2024

The battle for Congress is as close as the battle for the White House. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for debate, and 34 of the 100 senators in the upper house want to keep their seats in Washington. Republicans currently have control of the House of Representatives, while Democrats have a narrow majority in the Senate. Polls suggest the two parties could potentially swap chambers, with Republicans poised to win the Senate and Democrats gaining control of the House. However, anything can happen as polls show both parties neck and neck, reflecting the close presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

Most House races are non-competitive, but there are 22 contests: 10 Democratic seats and 12 Republican seats. Who controls the next House of Representatives depends on a few key districts in California, the country's most populous state. Five Republican representatives are fighting to retain their seats, three of them are even behind by five percentage points in the polls.

With the odds in favor, Rep. Pete Aguilar, the chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, has stepped up his campaign efforts in California. He held nine rallies over the weekend to encourage voters to vote for Democrats.

On Friday, the Cook Political Report, a respected election analysis organization, revised its forecasts for six House races across the country, showing Democratic candidates are better positioned to capture Republican seats in two districts in New York and one in Nebraska. In addition, three Democratic representatives in Oregon, Minnesota and New Hampshire also improved their chances of re-election.

Multimillion dollar competitions

The organization Open Secrets, which tracks private donations to political campaigns, estimates that $1 billion was spent in the most competitive House districts. Even more was allocated for Senate races, where the closest contests brought candidates $2.5 billion in spending. That makes the 2024 election cycle potentially the second most expensive in history, behind only 2020, when congressional campaigns reported spending in the region of $11 billion. Total spending on the 469 seats up for grabs this year is expected to be $10 billion.

The Senate elections in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Montana, Texas and Michigan are among the most closely watched elections. Republicans have a good chance of regaining control of the Senate from Democrats, as Republicans are defending 11 seats while their rivals are defending 23 seats.

Joe Manchin, the Democratic senator from West Virginia who has often posed challenges to the Biden administration because of his ties to Republicans, is resigning. It seems likely that conservatives will secure this seat, potentially leading to a 50-50 split in the Senate.

The balance could be shifting in Montana, where Democratic Sen. John Tester is seeking re-election for a fifth straight term in a solid Republican stronghold where Trump is expected to win by 18%. Polls currently favor Tester's challenger, Republican Tim Sheehy, a businessman with a background in the Navy's elite SEALs who is making his political debut.

It is one of the most expensive races of the cycle, according to the Associated Press, which compiles data from Open Secrets. Both candidates have spent $260 million in a state with just over a million residents.

But the most expensive fight is in Ohio, a state that is not on the radar in the presidential race, which is focused on the seven swing states. Another three-term Democratic senator, Sherrod Brown, is fighting for his political survival against Bernie Moreno, an immigrant from Colombia who came to the United States at age four. Moreno, a successful car dealer, wants to become the first Latino to represent the Midwestern state in the Senate. Between Brown and Moreno, who ran unsuccessfully in the 2022 Republican primary, which JD Vance won, nearly $405 million was spent on the race.

Republicans, meanwhile, are fiercely defending their stronghold in Texas, where controversial ultra-conservative Senator Ted Cruz is narrowly challenged by Colin Allred, a congressman who has been gaining momentum in the polls in recent months. Allred, a former African-American football player turned civil rights attorney, poses a real threat to Cruz, who has held his Senate seat for 11 years.

Democrats are optimistic about Allred's chances, prompting Kamala Harris to campaign in Texas in late October. The event, held just 11 days before the election, featured Beyoncé and highlighted Allred's commitment to women's rights. This isn't the first time Democrats have tried to unseat Cruz; In 2018, they lost by just under 2%, or about 200,000 votes. On Tuesday, Texas could elect its first Democratic senator from Washington in 36 years.

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