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Who will win the 2024 election? Predicting the Next President by Allan Lichtman

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Historian Allan Lichtman, who has accurately predicted nine of the last 10 presidential elections, said he still expects Kamala Harris to beat Donald Trump but is particularly nervous this year.

“I’ve been doing this for 42 years and every four years I get butterflies in my stomach,” he said. “I think I have a flock of crows in my stomach this year.”

Lichtman said the candidates' neck-and-neck race in key swing states doesn't make him nervous. He trusts his “13 Keys to the White House” system and still believes Harris will be the country’s next president. However, in a live video interview with his son Sam on his YouTube channel, the presidential forecaster explained that he is concerned about the fragility of democracy, pointing out that the political system has not been around that long.

“During the long history of humanity, democracy has been almost non-existent. The peoples were ruled by the divine right of kings, by the right of birth or by sword and blood,” he said. “Democracy is a very recent development.”

➤ Allan Lichtman: The historian who accurately predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections makes his pick for 2024

Both presidential campaigns have portrayed their rival as a “threat to democracy” in the 2024 cycle. Trump called Harris a “communist” and Harris called Trump a “fascist.” A Washington Post poll released in June found that more than 70% of Democratic and Republican voters viewed threats to democracy in the U.S. as “extremely important.”

Who is Allan Lichtman?

Before the 77-year-old Lichtman received the title of Distinguished Professor from the American University in Washington, DC, he received his Ph.D. Specialized in modern American history and quantitative methods at Harvard.

He is best known for helping to establish the presidential prediction system, which uses thirteen true-or-false statements. If five or fewer are incorrect, the incumbent party candidate is expected to win. If six or more are incorrect, the challenging party is expected to win.

This year, Lichtman said at least eight of the keys are in favor of Harris.

Using this system, he was able to correctly predict the outcome of every election since 1984, except for the famously close race in 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.

What are the 13 keys?

The keys and Lichtman's assessment of each include:

◾ After the midterm elections, the incumbent party has more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. (INCORRECT)

◾ There is no serious competition for the incumbent party's nomination. (TRUE)

◾The incumbent candidate of the incumbent party is the incumbent President. (INCORRECT)

◾ There is no significant external challenger. (TRUE)

◾ The short-term economy is strong. (TRUE)

◾ Long-term economic growth was as good as in the last two terms. (TRUE)

◾ The White House party has made major changes in national policy. (TRUE)

◾ There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (TRUE)

◾ The White House administration and party are free of scandals (True)

◾ The incumbent government suffers no major failures in foreign or military affairs. (Leans wrong)

◾ The incumbent government achieves great success in foreign or military affairs. (Leans true)

◾ The incumbent party's candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (INCORRECT)

◾ The candidate of the challenging party is neither charismatic nor a national hero. (TRUE)

Reach Rachel Barber at [email protected] and follow her on X @rachelbarber_

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