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Here's who's winning between Trump and Harris in the latest presidential polls

Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris has a single-digit lead over former President Donald Trump in four new national polls on Sunday and Monday, but three more polls are a dead heat – as polls show a statistically indecisive battle for the White House marked by near-calls is in all seven swing states, leaving the race completely unpredictable just one day before the election.

Important facts

The HarrisX/Forbes poll, conducted between Wednesday and Friday and with a margin of error of one point, has Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%.

The vice president has a four-point lead (51% to 47%) in a new PBS News/NPR/Marist poll and a two-point lead (49% to 47%) in a Morning Consult poll of likely voters. exits Sunday with a margin of error of one point – a slight tightening of the race since Harris led by three points last week and by four points in two previous Morning Consult polls.

The vice president has a similar three-point lead of 49% to 46% in an ABC/Ipsos poll, compared with her 51% to 47% lead last week and her 50% to 48% lead in early October.

Harris is up 49% to 48% in the latest HarrisX/Forbes poll of likely voters released Thursday — but about 10% of likely voters and 16% of all registered voters could still change their minds.

In an Economist/YouGov poll Wednesday, Harris also leads Trump among likely voters, 49% to 47%, with 2% unsure and about 3% supporting other candidates (margin of error 3.6) – a slight decline from Harris' 49% to 46%. Edge last week.

In a very large probability poll from the Cooperative Election Study, a multi-university poll conducted by YouGov that polled about 50,000 people from October 1 to October 20, Harris is up 51-47% – with just 3% 25 are still undecided.

The widely circulated Times poll represented a decline in support for Harris, as the paper's previous poll in early October showed her with a 49% to 46% lead over Trump – and the paper called the results “not encouraging.” for Harris, since the Democrats won the majority of the population in the last election, even if they lost the White House.

Trump leads 48% to 46% (margin of error 3.1) in a CNBC poll of registered voters released Thursday, and he leads 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters Wednesday ( Margin of error 2.5) — a shift in Trump's favor since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal poll.

Harris has squandered Trump's lead over Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, although her lead has narrowed over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight's weighted polling average.

Important note: Presidential polls have often been wrong

And there's a lot of speculation about why they're wrong this year – and who might benefit. Read all about it in this story.

According to polls, who will win the election: Harris or Trump?

According to FiveThirtyEight's election forecast, Trump is favored to win the Electoral College 53 times out of 100, compared to 47 for Harris. Statistician Nate Silver's model shows Trump has a 51.5% chance of winning.

Big number

1 point. That's Harris' average lead over Trump in the FiveThirtyEight polling average. Meanwhile, the RealClearPolitics polling average shows Trump up 0.2 points, and Nate Silver sees Harris up 0.9 points in his Silver Bulletin forecast.

How does Harris fare against Trump in swing states?

According to Silver Bulletin polling averages, Harris is leading in Michigan and Wisconsin and Trump is leading in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. That means Trump would win the Electoral College if polls in all swing states were completely accurate – but many of the seven swing states, including crucial Pennsylvania, have margins of less than one percentage point.

Surprising fact

An NBC News poll released Sept. 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, that lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters, found that 54% supported Harris, compared to 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said , they weren't sure who they would vote for. Support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden ran against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than previous peaks for Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in the 2020 poll and a 50-point lead in the 2016 poll . The survey had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

How did the debate affect the polls?

Polls leading up to the debate showed that Harris's rise in poll numbers appeared to have plateaued, including a Sept. 3-5 NPR/PBS/Marist poll of registered voters that showed Harris leading 49% to 48 % ahead of Trump, compared to a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate polls show that a majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly influence the race between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released on September 19 found that the majority of voters across all demographic groups viewed Harris' performance in the September 10 debate positively. Overall, 67% said she did well, compared to 40% who said the same goes for Trump. In an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted a few days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, Harris was up 52% ​​to 46% among likely voters and 51% to 47% among registered voters , essentially unchanged from her six-point lead among likely voters in ABC/Ipsos polls in late August and early August – even though 63% of Americans said Harris won the debate.

Important background

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after weeks of defying calls from his own party to end his re-election bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to formally nominate her in a virtual roll call before the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 in Philadelphia. Harris' surge in the polls coincides with a surge in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while Republican enthusiasm is at 71%. stagnates. according to a Monmouth University survey released Aug. 14.

Further reading

New HarrisX/Forbes poll: Trump leads Harris by 2 points – but 12% still decide (Forbes)

Swing state polls for the 2024 election: Latest polls show Trump in Nevada, Georgia (Update) (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump rises 1 point in latest poll – while Harris struggles with Latinos (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump leads in latest poll – but undecided voters could influence results (Forbes)

Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump rises 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris narrowly leads in latest poll (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads crucial swing state in latest poll (Forbes)

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads by 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump leads by 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

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