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What could influence the election? 6 things that can decide the race

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WASHINGTON — After months of unraveling countless polls, volatile betting markets and a historic gender gap, the 2024 elections are here — and we will soon know whether Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump will be the next president.

More than 80 million people voted early, and about as many are expected to go to the polls in person on Tuesday to decide a close election that is likely to hold power in seven top battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona.

Late-counted mail-in ballots, particularly in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, mean we may not know the winner on election night.

It caps a wild sprint to Election Day between Trump, a twice-impeached and four-time impeached former president, and Harris, the sitting vice president who only launched her campaign in late July after President Joe Biden resigned. There were two assassination attempts against Trump during the race.

Here are six things to keep in mind on Election Day that could be crucial in deciding whether Harris or Trump wins:

How big will the gender difference be?

The 2024 race has long since become a “boys versus girls” election, with polls showing Harris doing significantly better with women and Trump doing significantly better with men.

Harris wants to become the country's first female president. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll from Oct. 14-18 showed Harris leading among female voters nationally, 53% to 36%, while Trump led among male voters by about the same margin (53% to 37%) is at the top.

Since women have historically voted slightly more often than men, gender dynamics could give Harris an advantage. The Harris campaign focused on the abortion fight after Roe v. Wade and relied on winning large numbers of female voters to help Harris win.

Democrats are encouraged by women's early turnout, where they outperformed men by about 9 percentage points nationally, about the same margin as in the 2020 election, when Biden defeated Trump.

Will Trump's brother vote go through?

To overcome Harris' dominance among female voters, Trump has targeted an often overlooked group of voters: young men without college degrees.

Trump's appearances at UFC fights and a college football game. His podcast interviews with Joe Rogan and internet celebrities and influencers Adin Ross, Theo Von and Logan Paul. His introduction of a Trump logo sneaker. Trump's embrace of wrestling icon Hulk Hogan.

More: The Bro Vote: Trump and Harris duel over what it means to be a man in America

All of this activity – and the blatant “machoness” on display in the campaign – was aimed at a segment of the electorate that Trump's campaign believes can help secure the former president's election: male voters 50 who were undecided ahead of the election, representing about 11% of the electorate in battleground states.

Many of these voters are considered low-information, low-propensity voters who do not closely follow every step of a presidential election and do not always vote. Trump needs them to come to power.

A Silver Boost for Harris?

Democrats have not represented older voters in a presidential election since Al Gore in 2000, but polls suggest Harris could do so this year thanks to older women.

Some called it a potential “silver bullet” for Harris and the “granny gap.”

In the October USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll, Harris narrowly led Trump 46% to 44% among voters 65 and older nationally. A national AARP poll in late September showed Harris leading Trump among older women 54%-42%. According to AARP, rising costs and protecting Social Security and Medicare are among older women's top priorities. But for many, this also applies to abortion – perhaps they remember an America where they had greater reproductive rights than their daughters and granddaughters.

More: Iowa poll: Kamala Harris overtakes Donald Trump and takes the lead shortly before Election Day. Here's how

A stunning Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll released over the weekend showed Harris leading Trump by three percentage points in reliably red Iowa, in part because of an extraordinary gap among older women — one that propelled Harris to victory could result if fought on the battlefields of the Midwest.

The poll showed Harris leading older women in Iowa by a margin of 63% to 28% and older men leading by a margin of 47% to 45%. The poll also showed Harris leading among independent female voters 57% to 29%.

Will Trump turn off black and Latino voters?

Polls suggest the Trump campaign has made progress in poaching some Black and Latino voters – two Democratic strongholds – by targeting younger male voters in both groups.

If Trump expands his share of black voters in urban centers like Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee even slightly, to win Harris would have to make up for it by building on Democrats' recent gains among college-educated white voters in the suburbs.

In 2020, Black voters supported Biden 92%-8% over Trump, according to exit polls, while Latino voters supported Biden 65%-32%. The USA TODAY/Suffolk poll in October showed Harris leading black voters by a narrow margin, 72% to 17%. A Florida International University statewide poll of Latino voters last week showed Harris leading among Latino voters 57% to 33%, regaining some ground she had lost.

According to a Marist College poll last week, Harris leads Trump 84-16% among black voters in Pennsylvania and 75-25% in Michigan, both trailing Biden's margin. In Wisconsin, Marist found that Harris was supported by 63% of non-whites in 2020, while Biden was supported by 73% in 2020.

But in the polls, Harris was narrowly in the lead in all three states – because she is doing better with white voters than Biden: with white voters in Pennsylvania she is ahead of Trump 51-47%, in Michigan 51-48% and in Wisconsin at 50-48%. This suggests that Harris could close the gap among voters of color by widening the margins among white voters in the suburbs.

A Puerto Rican backlash?

Some Puerto Rican voters rallied for Harris after comedian Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico a “floating island of trash” at a recent Trump rally at New York's Madison Square Garden.

Could the backlash be strong enough to influence the election in Pennsylvania?

Pennsylvania has a growing population of more than 1 million Hispanic voters – 615,000 are expected to vote – including a large group of Puerto Rican voters in Allentown, the state's third-largest city.

According to a poll released Sunday by Noticias Univision and YouGov, Harris leads Latino voters in Pennsylvania 64-30%, and she leads Puerto Rican voters in the state 67-27%. The poll also found that most Pennsylvania Latinos, including Puerto Ricans, were offended by Hinchliffe's joke – 67% of respondents said it was “more racist than humorous,” including 71% of Puerto Ricans.

Harris campaigned in Allentown on Monday as part of a tour of Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, the most of any battleground. With a close result expected in Pennsylvania, the state's Puerto Ricans could play a big role.

Will the “blue wall” keep its shape or split?

As Harris and Trump try to secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win, the first focus is the so-called “blue wall” of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

The three Rust Belt states have voted as a bloc in every presidential election since 1988, with one presidential candidate winning all three. Biden won in 2020 after Trump handed the three states with the “blue wall” to the Republican column in 2016.

If Harris leads all three blue wall states on Tuesday, she would likely win the election even if she lost all four battleground Sun Belt states – North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. This assumes Harris wins Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, where she is ahead in the polls, and all other states she is heavily favored to win. Harris would win the Electoral College by 270 votes to 268 in this scenario.

But for Trump, a win in one of the Blue Wall states — but especially the biggest prize winner, Pennsylvania — would open up multiple avenues for him to reach 270 by combining that win with victories in the Sun Belt states , where he generally wins more heavily polled.

For example, if Trump wins Pennsylvania — but loses Wisconsin and Michigan — he would win the Electoral College 271 to 267 if he also wins three of the Sun Belt states.

In that scenario, Harris would have to offset a loss in Pennsylvania by carrying at least two Sun Belt states. That would mean Trump could lose either Georgia or North Carolina — both of which have 16 electoral votes — and still win.

Reach Joey Garrison on X, formerly Twitter, @joeygarrison

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