NFL 2024 Week 9 Betting: Buccaneers-Chiefs Odds, Picks, Lines

The final game of Week 9 pits Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Kansas City, Missouri, on “Monday Night Football” (8:15 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN). The Chiefs (7-0) are atop the AFC standings and are favorites to win the Super Bowl on ESPN BET (+400). Despite Mahomes' shaky play this season, the Chiefs' offense remains strong, relying on a rushing attack led by Kareem Hunt and a physical defense.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers (4-4) are looking to bounce back after losing two straight games in Weeks 7 and 8 to the Baltimore Ravens and Atlanta Falcons, respectively. Tampa Bay enters the game with several key players injured, including Mayfield's top two receivers, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. As a result, the Chiefs entered the game as 8.5-point favorites at the start of last week, but since then the line has increased by half a point to Chiefs -9. The total score for the matchup remained the same at 45.5 points.

Here's everything you need to know to bet on the Buccaneers Chiefs and Seth Walder's favorite bets for the game.

Odds are current as of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

Game lines

Spread: Chiefs -9
Money line: Chieftains (-450), Privateers (+340)
Over/Under: 45.5

Distribution in the first half: Chiefs -5.5 (-110), Buccaneers +5.5 (-110)
First half moneyline: Chieftains (-320), Privateers (+240)
Buccaneers Total Points: 26.5 (above -105/below -125)
Chiefs total points: 20.5 (above -110/below -120)

Seth Walder's choice

Nick Bolton under 8.5 tackles + assists (-118)

Bolton has a 14% tackle rate – meaning he records a combined tackle on 14% of his defensive plays – which is almost exactly average for an off-ball linebacker. Like most linebackers, Bolton also has a much higher tackle rate on opponent-designed runs (20%) than on opponent dropbacks (11%). And in this case, Bolton should expect to see fewer opposing runs: The Chiefs are 9-point favorites, meaning the Bucs are likely to play from behind and therefore pass often. In addition, the Bucs are already pass-heavy: Tampa Bay has the fourth-highest pass percentage above expectations in the NFL, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. My model predicts 7.5 tackles + assists for Bolton.

The props

Passing by

Patrick Mahomes total passing yards: 249.5 (above -110/below -120)
Mahomes' total pass TDs: 1.5 (above -120/below -110)
Baker Mayfield's total passing yards: 224.5 (Over -155/Under +120)
Mayfield's total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +135/Under -170)

Rush

Kareem Hunt Total Rushing Yards: 59.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
Bucky Irving's total rushing yards: 34.5 (above even/below -130)
Rachaad White Total Rushing Yards: 29.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Mahomes Total Rushing Yards: 19.5 (above -120/below -110)
Mayfield Total Rushing Yards: 69.5 (above -125/below -105)

Reception

Travis Kelce total receiving yards: 59.5 (above -130/below even)
Cade Otton total receiving yards: 49.5 (above -130/below even)
Jalen McMillan total receiving yards: 39.5 (above -120/below -110)
DeAndre Hopkins total receiving yards: 44.5 (above -115/below -115)
Xavier Worthy receiving total yards: 34.5 (above -125/below -105)
Noah Gray is receiving total yards: 24.5 (above -105/below -120)
Rachaad White total receiving yards: 24.5 (above -125/below -105)
Justin Watson total receiving yards: 19.5 (above -120/below -110)
Bucky Irving receiving total yards: 19.5 (Over +115/Under -145)

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• The Buccaneers are 10-2 ATS since the start of last season, including 8-2 ATS as an underdog.

• Five straight Buccaneers games have exceeded the total.

• Patrick Mahomes has gone 22-28 ATS in his career while scoring at least seven points (0-2 ATS this season). The Unders are 29-19-2 in Mahomes' home starts, including 14-6 over the last three seasons.

• Baker Mayfield is 5-10 ATS in primetime games. The Chiefs are 3-0 ATS in prime time games this season.

• Underdogs with at least six points are 21-12 ATS this season. Underdogs with at least seven points are 14-6 ATS. 7-9 underdogs are 14-1 ATS this season.

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