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NBA Top Picks Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends for Monday, November 4

The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, November 4, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Over the total is 28-13 (68.3%) since the start of last season when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Match: PLAY OVER in BOS-ATL (o/u at 234)

NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 118-87 SU and 116-86-3 ATS (57.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX (-7 vs. PHI), OKLAHOMA CITY (-12.5 vs. ORL)

* MEMPHIS is on a 9-1 ATS run against BKN when playing on the ROAD
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 93-55 SU and 88-58-2 ATS (60.3%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+7 at CLE)

* UTAH is on a 36-19 Over the total run when playing on the road with One Day Rest
System Match: PLAY OVER in UTA-CHI (o/u at 228)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, LA LAKERS, BOSTON, MEMPHIS, NEW YORK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, INDIANA, LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, CHICAGO, NEW YORK, MINNESOTA, OKLAHOMA CITY, DENVER, PHOENIX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, NEW ORLEANS

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL on ML): MILWAUKEE, SACRAMENTO, SAN ANTONIO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January ’23. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Matches (FADE ALL on ML): GOLDEN STATE, BOSTON

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BOS-ATL, MEM-BKN, NYK-HOU, POR-NOP, PHI-PHX, SAS-LAC 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-CHI

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 23-16 SU and 25-13-1 ATS (65.8%) last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
11/4: NEW ORLEANS vs. Portland
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (-2.5 vs. POR) 

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 16-25 SU and 15-25-1 ATS (37.5%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
11/4: FADE ATLANTA vs. Boston
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+10 vs. BOS)

* Under the total was 100-69 (59.2%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
11/4: UNDER the total in BROOKLYN-MEMPHIS
System Match: PLAY UNDER in MEM-BKN (o/u at 225)

11/4: UNDER the total in NEW ORLEANS-PORTLAND
System Match: PLAY UNDER in POR-NOP (o/u at 221) 

* Over the total was 80-62 (56.3%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
11/4: OVER the total in ORLANDO-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match: PLAY OVER in ORL-OKC (o/u at 215.5)

* Over the total was 24-13 (64.9%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing on 2 Days Rest.
11/4: Over the total in DETROIT-LA LAKERS
System Match: PLAY OVER in LAL-DET (o/u at 227.5)

* Over the total is 28-13 (68.3%) since the start of last season when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
11/4: Over the total in ATLANTA-BOSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER in BOS-ATL (o/u at 234)

The following are 40 of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 34-53 SU and 32-55 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-9.5 at WSH) 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 30-34 SU and 19-44-1 ATS skid entering 2024-25 when playing on standard One Day Rest
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+7 at CLE) 

* ORLANDO is on a 14-14 SU and 21-7 ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (+12.5 at OKC)

* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 36-22 SU and 39-19 ATS in its last 58 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (+7 at PHX)

* ATLANTA is 41-18 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
System Match: PLAY OVER in BOS-ATL (o/u at 234)

* UTAH is on a 36-19 Over the total run when playing on the road with OneDayRest
System Match: PLAY OVER in UTA-CHI (o/u at 228)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 174-33 SU but just 90-114-3 ATS (44.1%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (-10 vs. TOR), OKLAHOMA CITY (-12.5 vs. ORL)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 84-71 (54.2%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 159-133 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 226-160 (58.5%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BOS-ATL (o/u at 234), TOR-DEN (o/u at 231.5), ORL-OKC (o/u at 215.5) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 49-82 SU and 52-75-4 ATS (40.9%) slide, including 23-44-2 ATS in the last 69 games and 17-31 ATS when a pick ’em or favorite.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+7 vs. LAL), BROOKLYN (+5 vs. MEM) 

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 93-55 SU and 88-58-2 ATS (60.3%) in that follow-up try over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+7 at CLE)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 270-221 (55%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): LA LAKERS (-7 vs. DET), GOLDEN STATE (-9.5 at WSH) 

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 232-251 SU and 214-264-5 ATS (44.8%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-10 vs. TOR)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing. They are on a 162-135 SU and 168-120-9 ATS (58.3%) run.
System Match (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (-2.5 at HOU), CHARLOTTE (+9.5 at MIN)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 118-87 SU and 116-86-3 ATS (57.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX (-7 vs PHI), OKLAHOMA CITY (-12.5 vs ORL) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 28-58 SU but 45-41 ATS (52.3%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+7 at CLE)

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 91-17 SU BUT 47-59-3 ATS (44.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-12.5 vs. ORL)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.7% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (162-181 ATS, 47.2%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (223-215 ATS, 50.9%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+7 at CLE) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 195-240-1 ATS (44.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU and 58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-7 vs. MIL) 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +4 (+3.0)
2. MIAMI +1 (+2.8)
3. DETROIT +7.5 (+2.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE -9.5 (+2.6)
2. DENVER -10 (+1.8)
3. NEW ORLEANS -2.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DETROIT +7.5 (+3.9)
2. MIAMI +1 (+3.5)
3. SAN ANTONIO +4 (+2.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -7 (+7.1)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -12.5 (+0.6)
3. NEW ORLEANS -2.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORL-OKC OVER 215.5 (+1.6)
2. NYK-HOU OVER 217.5 (+1.0)
3. IND-DAL OVER 237 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOS-ATL UNDER 233.5 (-4.1)
2. MEM-BKN UNDER 225.5 (-3.0)
3. LAL-DET UNDER 227.5 (-2.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +4 (+2.8)
2. UTAH +7.5 (+2.2)
3. DETROIT +7.5 (+2.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE -9.5 (+2.8)
2. MINNESOTA -10 (+2.2)
3. DENVER -10 (+1.9) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYK-HOU OVER 217.5 (+4.5)
2. PHI-PHX OVER 223.5 (+2.6)
3. ORL-OKC OVER 215.5 (+1.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOS-ATL UNDER 233.5 (-5.5)
2. TOR-DEN UNDER 231.5 (-4.4)
3. MEM-BKN UNDER 225.5 (-2.9) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(545) MILWAUKEE at (546) CLEVELAND
* UNDER the total is 5-1 in MIL-CLE rivalry since 2023
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(547) GOLDEN STATE at (548) WASHINGTON
* GOLDEN STATE is 3-0-1 ATS in the series with WSH since 2023
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS 

(549) LA LAKERS at (550) DETROIT
* OVER the total is 6-1 in the last seven of LAL-DET series, but did lose last time
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(551) BOSTON at (552) ATLANTA
* OVER the total is 6-0 in the BOS-ATL series in Atlanta since 2023
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(553) MEMPHIS at (554) BROOKLYN
* MEMPHIS is on a 9-1 ATS run against BKN when playing on the ROAD
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS 

(557) UTAH at (558) CHICAGO
* HOME TEAMS are 5-1 ATS in the UTA-CHI series since start of 2021 season
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS

(559) NEW YORK at (560) HOUSTON
* NEW YORK is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the series with HOU
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

(561) CHARLOTTE at (562) MINNESOTA
* CHARLOTTE is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine games versus MIN
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS 

(563) ORLANDO at (564) OKLAHOMA CITY
* OKLAHOMA CITY is on a 10-2 ATS surge in the series with ORL
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

(567) INDIANA at (568) DALLAS
* OVER the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of IND-DAL series in Dallas
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(569) TORONTO at (570) DENVER
* OVER the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the TOR-DEN non-conference series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(571) PHILADELPHIA at (572) PHOENIX
* HOME TEAMS have won five straight ATS in the PHI-PHX series
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS

(573) SAN ANTONIO at (574) LA CLIPPERS
* UNDER the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the SAS-LAC series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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