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University of Akron poll shows comfortable lead for Trump in Ohio, dead heat for U.S. Senate • Ohio Capital Journal

A University of Akron Bliss Institute poll released Thursday found Donald Trump seven points ahead of Kamala Harris in Ohio and U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown with a slight edge over his Republican challenger Bernie Moreno.

The results are part of the school's 2024 Buckeye Survey, which was conducted Sept. 12 through Oct. 24. The poll included 1,241 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Upon closer inspection, pollsters found that the wide gender gap that many expect to see in the presidential race at the national level was not really reflected at the state level. They even find that Trump has a nominal lead of one point among women, although this figure is well within the margin of error and 3% are still undecided.

The poll found that independents in Ohio are leaning toward Trump in the presidential race, but nearly a quarter of that group is still undecided. In the Senate race, a third of independents had not yet made a decision.

The survey also sheds light on the stark differences in how voters view the country. On issues such as economic policy, immigration, abortion and trans rights, the partisans on both sides are far apart.

U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown speaks with a supporter at a Democratic Party campaign rally for voters in Franklin County. (Photo by Graham Stokes for the Ohio Capital Journal. Only publish the photo with the original article.)

Race for President

The Buckeye poll found that 51% of respondents support Donald Trump, compared to 44% who support Kamala Harris. Those results include respondents leaning toward a particular candidate — 4% in the case of Trump and 6% for Harris, while another 5% of voters supported a third party or remained undecided. Trump's seven-point lead is beyond the poll's margin of error and roughly in line with his actual performance in Ohio in 2016 and 2020, both of which he won by eight points.

“We are not at all surprised by the presidential campaign numbers that show Donald Trump with a significant seven-point lead over Harris,” said Cherie Stachan, director of the Bliss Institute and a political scientist.

The survey also broke down respondents' partisanship on a spectrum ranging from “strong” to “actually” for both parties, with independents in the middle. Among voters who identify as independents, 39% support Trump, compared to 24% for Harris. Another 23% said they would support neither.

VANDALIA, OHIO – MARCH 16: Ohio Senate candidate Bernie Moreno greets former President Donald Trump in Vandalia earlier this year. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

U.S. Senate race

Strachan described the competition between Brown and Moreno as a “margin of error race.” The top result of the Buckeye poll had Brown leading Moreno 46% to 44% – a neck-and-neck race given the poll's margin of error.

“The only thing that's interesting about the Senate race,” she said, “is that there are still enough people, at least in this poll, who are willing to split their ticket and support the incumbent senator for whatever reason to make a result.” Race for the error rate.”

Based on the overlap they saw in the poll, Brown received about three points among respondents who support Trump but still plan to vote for the Democratic senator.

It's notable, Strachan said, that “Trump's support hasn't pushed this challenger over the edge – Moreno hasn't solidified all Republicans despite Trump's support.”

This can be seen somewhat in the quality of their answers in the Senate race. Voters’ preferences were a little more vague, with significantly more “lean” voters than in the presidential election campaign. Brown received strong support from 37% of respondents, with another 9% agreeing with him. But for Moreno, 30% of respondents said they were strong supporters and 14% said they would just support him.

“I think this is just another signal that he may have done some things that may not have been as successful in convincing people that he is a good candidate,” Strachan said, “or that he is a is a candidate that people like to support.”

She pointed to television advertising as an anecdotal example. Although Moreno and outside groups that support him have mounted vigorous attacks on Brown, they have spent significantly less promoting Moreno — a relative political newcomer. According to FEC data, independent groups poured more than $114 million into attacking Brown but less than $66 million supporting Moreno.

polarization

The Buckeye poll found Republicans and Democrats sharply divided on several key policy issues. On the issues of abortion, immigration and transgender rights, the parties are mirror images of each other in terms of support or opposition.

Strachan noted that these divisions have become so pronounced and widespread in recent years that political scientists refer to the phenomenon as negative partisanship: “I don't like the other side any more than maybe my own,” Strachan described. “Animosity toward the other side drives us to stay in our partisan silos rather than to like our own.”

That's one reason Brown's continued appeal across party lines is significant, even if that appeal has put him in a statistical tie.

“In American politics, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to pull off what Brown is doing and get these voters to split their votes.”

Follow OCJ Reporter Nick Evans on Twitter.

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