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Here's who's leading the Trump-Harris 2024 presidential race in Nevada

Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris will secure a narrow victory against former President Donald Trump in the crucial swing state, veteran journalist Jon Ralston, revered for the accuracy of his presidential election predictions in the state, predicted Monday, citing independent voters in the state he believes , that he will push Harris over the edge.

Important facts

Harris will win 48.5% of the vote, Trump will win 48.2% and 3.3% of voters will choose “none of these candidates” on their ballots, says Ralston – CEO and publisher of the nonprofit Nevada Independent, who perfects the result predicts the state's presidential election — wrote Monday, calling this year's election “the most difficult since I started.”

Ralston's forecast comes at a time when Trump and Harris are nearly neck-and-neck in other polls in Nevada — FiveThirtyEight's weighted polling average shows Trump with a 0.4-point lead.

Harris and Trump are tied at 48% (margin of error 3.3 points) in the latest Emerson College/The Hill primary poll on Monday, and Harris is ahead by three points, 49%-46%, in a New York Times/Siena poll, ahead poll of likely voters in Nevada, released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points).

Harris also leads 51% to 47% in a survey of likely voters released last week by the Cooperative Election Study, an extensive series of nationwide, university-backed surveys (933 respondents).

Meanwhile, Trump is up 48-47% (margin of error 4.6 points) in a CNN/SSRS poll released Tuesday.

In a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll released Oct. 23, Harris also leads (5-point margin of error) among likely voters, 48.8% to 48.3% – essentially a tie An AARP poll of likely voters trails Trump 47% to 46% released October 22 (margin of error 4), while a Wall Street Journal poll from October 11 (margin of error 4) shows Trump with an unusually large lead out of five points.

Nevada — the smallest swing state with just six electoral votes — has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, and President Joe Biden beat Trump there by 2.4 points in 2020.

Surprising fact

A majority of voters, 30%, identify as independents in Nevada. Ralston predicts they will turn to Harris, citing a new Democratic-backed law that automatically registers voters at DMVs as nonpartisan if they don't choose a political party.

tangent

The GOP has a lead in mail ballots returned so far, boosting its hopes of taking back the state. “The Republicans are looking better than ever in the first count,” Jon Ralston, CEO and publisher of the Nevada Independent, revered for his early election predictions, told Vox on Tuesday, a week before the election. Ralston said there were some signs that younger voters would cast their ballots later and that independents would favor Harris, but that could result in the electorate voting in favor of Democrats.

What you should pay attention to

The state will not release results until the last voter casts a ballot when polls close at 10 p.m. EST. Mail-in ballots can be counted 15 days before Election Day, which could produce quicker results than in 2020, but a state law allowing mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they are received by Nov. 9 could change extend the process. The majority of Nevada voters cast their ballots by mail.

Big number

56%. That's the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016 compared to 49% who identified with the Democratic Party in 2024, according to a September NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.

Important background

Support for Harris among Latino voters will be crucial to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanics and Latinos make up about 30% of the population and polls show she has lost support among key demographics. Biden leads Trump 61% to 35% among Latino voters in Nevada in 2020, according to CNN polls, while Harris leads Trump 56% to 40% among Latino voters in Nevada in October, according to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll of Latino voters. ahead of Trump. According to the poll, Harris has particular problems with Latino men. According to the poll, 53% of Latino male voters ages 18 to 34 in Nevada support Trump and 40% support Harris, while 53% of Latino men ages 35 to 49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris. Immigration and inflation top the list of concerns for Latino voters in Nevada, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll. Thirty-seven percent cited inflation as their top concern and 17 percent cited immigration.

tangent

The Harris campaign made a last-minute appeal to Hispanic men in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada this month with a “Hombres con Harris” tour with members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including running mate Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Arizona, against Trump allies Kari Lake for Senate in Arizona. The tour will include stops at Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other venues frequented by Latino men, her campaign said.

Further reading

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Polls Show Trump Has Slight Advantage (Forbes)

Swing-state polls for the 2024 election: Trump maintains lead in Arizona, while Harris narrowly leads in Pennsylvania (Update) (Forbes)

Trump vs. Harris polls 2024: Harris and Trump virtually tied in latest polls as race tightens (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads crucial swing state in latest poll (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads in latest poll (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris surprisingly leads by one point in new poll (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Overtakes Harris' Lead (Forbes)

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