Nevada's 2024 Election Predictions by Editor Jon Ralston

I should have done the mic drop in 2022.

Choosing the winners of the first two races, both of which were agonizingly close, should have been the swansong, the ride into the sunset of my oracle career. But no, I couldn't just rest on the laurels of correctly voting for Governor Joe Lombardo (1.5 percent win) and Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (under 1 percent win).

So here we go again.

I usually start these prediction columns by reminding you of my historical brilliance — Harry Reid in 2010, Dean Heller in 2012, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden won in 2016 and 2020, respectively — as if that could stave off the “I told you so.” . So Mafia in Muskland and the real world if I'm wrong. A stupid task, right?

@Itweetinmypajamas And @Ihaveendlessmemestoposttomockyou are of course not the target group. In this polarized world we live in, mindless criticism is getting worse and the silos of validation culture are becoming impossible to penetrate.

But once you start a tradition, it's difficult to just end it because you're afraid of being wrong. (What does that feels?)

I've never missed a presidential run in Nevada (I've botched votes), but this is the most difficult since I started – more on that below. But this forecast and all others are based not just on early voting data, but also on historical experience, my sources on both sides and, yes, my gut feeling. I think it would be wrong not to explain a reason for predictions. So:

Elections, as always, are about many things, but when distilled, it's about math. And the bill this year is confusing.

Early voting is different from all others because this data was stored in such detail and I began to analyze it. Typically, Democrats, powered by the machine Harry Reid built, build a firewall in populous Clark County, intended as a bulwark against losses in the 15 red counties, with Washoe County often deciding who wins. But this cycle, in which former President Donald Trump and Co. have discovered that it might be wise to encourage Republicans to vote early and even by mail (the horror!), the GOP vote has come to the fore moved. The opposite is true and the question is whether Democrats can overcome a lead of over 43,000 GOP votes as I write this.

I won't repeat much of my analysis on this – you can read it on the blog – which concludes that Trump probably currently has a lead of 30,000 raw votes. My theory on this case, however, is that there are still many Clark County mail-in ballots to be counted that favor Democrats, and that the GOP's partial cannibalization of their Election Day vote will help some Democrats win, but perhaps not entirely others will get there. Which is which?

I can see from top to bottom that the races could go either way, but I've decided to trust the Reid machine, which has not lost four consecutive presidential elections and will somehow turn in enough ballots in the next few days to make that happen do what she always does does. All of this fails if the Indies don't go for Vice President Kamala Harris and the machine doesn't get enough ballots back – then not only would Trump win, but there will be surprises in the vote.

It's crazy to predict close races, but you also have to be a little crazy to have covered politics for nearly four decades. Just sing the chorus over and over again.

Further!

—-President: Because of the unusual voting patterns, I call this the unicorn election. It's really hard to say what will happen to mail-in ballots and turnout on Election Day when so many Republicans vote early. But I do know this: Both sides – at least those who understand the data on both sides – believe it will be close. That's because, if past is any prologue in the era of mail-in voting (the last two cycles), tens of thousands of mail-in ballots will arrive between now and Friday (the deadline). It's a simple question: Can Democrats catch up? It's really a coin toss, and I know people on both sides who have analyzed the data and can't decide. I went back and forth in my own head for days, my eyes glazed over with numbers, models and projections. The key to this election has always been which direction non-major party voters break because they have become the plurality in the state. They will make up about 30 percent of the electorate, and if they vote for Harris enough, she will win Nevada. I think that will be the case, and I'll tell you why: Many people assume that Republicans are catching up with Democrats on voter registration, that the automatic voter registration plan pushed by Democrats will automatically register people as nonpartisans (it unless they choose a party). ) at the DMV had been a failure for the party. But I don't believe that. There are many bipartisans who are closet Democrats and have been intentionally registered as bipartisans by Democratic-aligned groups. The machine knows who they are and gets them to vote. It will be just enough to overcome the Republican leadership — along with women motivated by abortion and crossover votes the issue will also evoke. I know some may think this reflects my well-known disdain for Trump, which is all about data. But that's not the case. I have often predicted against my own preferences; The story doesn't lie. I just have a feeling she'll catch up here, but I also believe – and please remember – that it won't be clear here on election night who won, so tune out the garrulous nabobs of election denial. It will be very, very close. Prediction: Harris, 48.5 percent; Trump 48.2 percent; others and none of these candidates, 3.3 percent.

—-Senate: I don't think anyone has run a better race than Senator Jacky Rosen (D-NV), who is running this cycle. It was almost flawless. She amassed a fortune and then spent it early after Sam Brown won the primary, bashing him on abortion and his, um, evolving positions. He was never able to gain a foothold and had to bow down to Trump and right-wing crackpots. It was almost sad for a man with a remarkable story of survival and dedication to moving on with his life. But the truth is that national Republicans chose Brown, a relatively recent Texas transplant who has never won a race, because the GOP bench is so thin here. He was never among the Republican Party's top hopefuls, who were more focused on Montana and Ohio. I never believed the polls that showed roses in the double digits or high single digits. That's just not how we behave in Senate elections in Nevada. But she will win, and this fight could be over on election night. Forecast: roses, 50 percent; Brown, 45 percent; other and none of the above, 5 percent.

—-A house: The three Democratic-held congressional seats in the South should not be close to each other. Republicans, whose seats were decimated by Democrats over many cycles, had to settle for second-tier (generous?) candidates who couldn't come close to matching the incumbents' fundraising. Representative. Dina Titus, Steven Horsford and Susie Lee will winbut their races could be closer than expected. They all won in 2022, a bad year in which they would have been vulnerable. Mark Robertson couldn't do much against Titus two years ago, losing by 6 percentage points; Lee won by just 4 percentage points in 2022, and Drew Johnson was a surprise primary winner that year and was not viewed as a serious contender by local or national Republicans; Horsford won by 4 percentage points in 2022 against a weak candidate, and the ever-ambitious and party-switching John Lee didn't invest much in this cycle to try to defeat him. Democrats have a small lead in each of the districts – Susie Lee is virtually tied – but the remaining Clark votes are expected to be heavily Democratic and create some distance. If one of them ends up being within 5 percentage points, which seems possible, they will be targeted in 2026. Rep. Mark Amodei should prevail fairly easily against self-funding, bipartisan Greg Kidd.

—-Legislative: The conventional wisdom all year was that the state Senate would reach a supermajority, while the Assembly voted 50-50 to go that route. This is mostly structural (hello, gerrymandering) and has less to do with the candidates, as Gov. Joe Lombardo's team has recruited some high-profile candidates. In the state Senate, Democrats need to pick up a seat, and they will almost certainly take on outgoing Republican Sen. Heidi Seevers O'Gara, as Democrats have a large lead in the vote (5 percent) and turnout is unlikely to get any better. So I say Democratic representatives Angie Taylor defeats Michael Ginsburg. Democrats were hoping to defeat Republican Sen. Carrie Buck, whose crazy rants on social media make her seem like a crazy version of Marjorie Taylor Greene. But Buck will win after building a 5 percent lead over Jennifer Atlas. So the supermajority is with Democratic Senator Dallas Harris and Republican Lori Rogich, a good candidate – the Democrats' lead is pretty small, but I think Harris perseveres as more and more democratic votes come in. So 13-8 becomes 14-7. In the Assembly, Team Lombardo must ensure that all Republicans keep their seats and flip just one to prevent a supermajority there. Unlike many insiders, I still believe Democrats have a chance at a supermajority, depending on how big the mail collapse will be in the next few days. But in the end I think the Democrats can't hold it 28-14 becomes 25-17with one or two incumbents losing their seats.

—-Miscellaneous: I find Shelley Berkley will be the next mayor of Las Vegasbut it might be closer than people think – Victoria Seaman apparently goes to every event every day. But even though it's a nonpartisan race, there are too many Democrats in a Democratic city who like Berkley and don't like Seaman. With the exception of question 3, all voting questions were acceptedthat is the question of ranked choice voting/open primaries. Conventional wisdom says this should happen because proponents have spent a fortune. But something tells me they oversold and the enemies have done enough to incite fear of change and chaos. (The pro-Q3 ad that makes it seem like veterans have been disenfranchised may be the most disingenuous ad I've seen in a long time. But perhaps it will be rewarded.)

Feel free to congratulate me on my tips when I'm right, or tease me when I'm wrong – it happens. But not on Twitter, because like most people who want to keep their sanity, I'm not going to look for it.

Jon Ralston is CEO and publisher of The Indy.