John Ralston and Ann Selzer of Nevada predict Harris will win the state

Jon Ralston, the editor of the The Nevada Independent and an expert on politics and elections in the Silver State, predicted Kamala Harris would win the swing state with razor-thin margins – if the Democratic candidate can overcome a significant Republican lead in early voting.

In 2022, Ralston correctly predicted that Republican Joe Lombardo would win the gubernatorial race against Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak. He also correctly predicted that Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto would win re-election in the same election. As with the 2024 election, the polls in both races showed neck-and-neck races between the candidates leading up to Election Day.

Ralston also correctly predicted that Nevada would vote for the Democratic presidential candidate in both 2016 and 2020.

On Tuesday, Ralston predicted Harris would win with 48.5% of the vote, while former President Donald Trump would win 48.2%. According to the Nevada Secretary of State, this scenario would be a significantly closer election than the 2020 race, when Biden won Nevada by over 33,000 votes.

Recent polls appear to agree with Ralston's prediction, showing the two candidates in a dead heat heading into the weekend before Election Day FiveThirtyEight's survey aggregator.

However, Harris will have to overcome a significant Republican lead after the early voting period in Nevada ended last Friday. In the last election, Democrats dominated early voting in Nevada, building what Ralston called a “firewall” in the party stronghold of Clark County – the state's most populous county and home to thousands of Democrats in urban Las Vegas.

But this election cycle, Republicans have embraced the process. In a striking contrast to previous elections, registered Republicans cast over 45% of all early ballots most current data from the Foreign Minister. Registered Democrats made up just 27.7% of early voters, while independents and other parties made up 26.8%.

However, Ralston predicted Harris will close that gap as more mail-in ballots arrive from Clark County in the next few days. It must then rely on attracting independent voters and in-person turnout to prevail on election day.

Nevada's seven electoral votes are crucial to both campaigns – if they win there, they only need to win in one of the other battleground states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina or Georgia to prevail.

Ralston also predicted that incumbent Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen would prevail against her Republican challenger Sam Brown. The most current survey shows Rosen with a comfortable lead over Brown, a relatively new Texas transplant.

Ralston's prediction – and his excellent track record – have drawn comparisons to a recent survey published in the Des Moines Register by veteran local pollster J. Ann Selzer, which showed Harris winning the Midwestern state by three points.

Most polls throughout the election cycle have shown Trump continuing his dominance in Iowa, but Selzer accurately predicted his victories in 2016 and 2020. In the last presidential election, she accurately predicted Trump's seven-point lead in the Hawkeye State, even though national polls showed margins much closer.