Rating Changes: What We Know and Don't Know About the Battle for Congress

ANALYSIS – Time has not brought clarity to the battle for control of Congress. After nearly two years since the midterm elections and just days until November 5, it is still not clear whether Republicans or Democrats will have a majority in the House of Representatives next year.

While Republicans still have a clear advantage in the fight for control of the Senate, the fight for the House of Representatives looks as close as a neck-and-neck race for the presidency. The final set of changes in House ratings compared to Inside Elections (15 total changes) shows this close competition. 213 seats favor Republicans (rated as Solid, Likely, Lean or Lean) and 214 favor Democrats, and the eight toss-ups are evenly split, with each party currently representing four of them .

That means Democrats will likely need to win four of the toss-ups to get to 218, while Republicans will need to win five. It is the first time this cycle that the Democrats have even slightly won a majority in the individual district analysis.

Democrats' chances of winning a majority increased as data showed they had a slight advantage in a few voting districts. Inside Elections shifted six races from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic, including Iowa's 1st District (represented by Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks), Michigan's 8th District (Democrat Dan Kildee's open seat), New York's 4th District (Republican Anthony D'Esposito) and New York's 19th (Republican Marc Molinaro), Oregon's 5th (Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer) and Virginia's 7th (Democrat Abigail Spanberger's vacant seat). Incumbent Republicans Juan Ciscomani (Arizona's 6th place) and David Valadao (California's 22nd place) saw their chances of winning decline and their races switched from tilt Republican to toss-up.

There was some good news for Republicans in the latest round of ratings changes. Alaska's at-large district (represented by Democrat Mary Peltola), Iowa's 3rd District (Republican Zach Nunn), and Michigan's 7th District (Democrat Elissa Slotkin's open seat) all switched from Toss-up to Tilt Republican.

Because there were fewer toss-up contests, the overall range of likely outcomes also narrowed, ranging from a Democrat gaining nine seats to a Republican gaining one seat. Although this looks like a significant Democratic lead is needed the party has a net gain of four seats for a majority that sits in the middle of the pack, making the fight for the House of Representatives effectively a back-and-forth affair.

Texas Senate Tilt

Republicans still have a chance to gain control of the Senate, likely gaining two to four seats. (You need to win two to get an absolute majority.) But that total could rise even further considering that the GOP candidates in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada are within striking distance and could all win if the former President Donald Trump and the Republican Party would have had a great night.

At the other end of the spectrum, it is not entirely out of the question that Democrats will retain control of the Senate given some new developments and emerging situations.

In Nebraska, a combination of Dan Osborn's insurgent independence campaign and the lack of a serious campaign by GOP Sen. Deb Fischer means there's a chance Republicans could lose a seat in the Cornhusker State. Inside Elections rated the Nebraska race as Lean Republican.

Despite Fischer's efforts to lose a winnable race, Texas remains the Republicans' weakest seat.

While Republicans claim Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is ahead by mid-single digits, Democrats believe Rep. Colin Allred can pull even with the incumbent. No Democrat has won statewide in more than 30 years, but Allred is still in the hunt in recent days. Inside Elections changed the rating of the race from “Lean Republican” to “Tit Republican,” which was one step closer to a toss-up.

Democrats will lose West Virginia's Senate seat, but Republican losses in Texas or Nebraska could offset further Democratic losses in Montana and Ohio, for example. This could allow Democrats to retain control of the Senate as long as Vice President Kamala Harris wins the White House and Tim Walz is able to break tie votes as vice president.

Senate list

Moved towards Democrats:

Texas (Ted Cruz, R) from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican

House list

Moved towards Republicans:

Alaska is at large (Mary Peltola, D) from Toss-up to Tilt Republican

California's 49th (Mike Levin, D) from likely Democratic to lean Democratic

Iowa's 3rd place (Zach Nunn, R) from Toss-up to Tilt Republican

Maryland's 6th place (Open; David Trone, D) from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic.

Michigan's 7th (Open; Elissa Slotkin, D) from Toss-up to Tilt Republican

Moved towards Democrats:

Arizona's 6th place (Juan Ciscomani, R) from the Tilt Republican to the toss-up

California's 22nd (David Valadao, R) from the Tilt Republican to the toss-up

Iowa's 1st (Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R) from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic

Michigan's 8th place (Open; Dan Kildee, D) from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic

New Mexico's runner-up (Gabe Vasquez, D) from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic

New York's 4th (Anthony D'Esposito, R) from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic

New York's 19th (Marc Molinaro, R) from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic

Oregon's 5th place (Lori Chavez-DeRemer, R) from toss-up to tilt Democratic

Virginia's 7th place (Open; Abigail Spanberger, D) from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic

Wisconsin's 3rd (Derrick Van Orden, R) from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican