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Here's who's winning in the latest Trump-Harris presidential polls — as Nate Silver, 538, releases final predictions

Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris was narrowly ahead of former President Donald Trump in the final presidential forecasts from poll guru Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight shortly after midnight on Tuesday, although both forecasts showed the race for the White House remaining statistically undecided on Election Day as poll numbers showed Both candidates remained deadlocked in key swing states.

Important facts

Silver released his final forecast after running 80,000 simulations of the race based on polling data, finding that Harris had a 50.015% chance of winning, compared to Trump's 49.985% – effectively a tie – after something of a marginal comeback by the Democrat , which was down 44% to 55% in early November.

FiveThirtyEight also released its final prediction for the winner of the presidential race, with Harris having the slimmest lead at about 50% chance of winning, compared to 49% for Trump.

Silver and FiveThirtyEight's forecasts estimate the likelihood of a candidate winning and differ from polls that estimate how many votes each candidate will receive – but many statewide and swing state polls also remain essentially undecided.

In the latest HarrisX/Forbes poll, conducted between Wednesday and Friday and with a margin of error of one point, Harris leads Trump 49% to 48% among likely voters, and she is also ahead at 50 in an Ipsos poll % to 48% ahead of Trump Monday.

The widely watched Times/Siena poll, released late last month, represented a decline in support for Harris, as the paper's previous poll in early October showed her with a 49% to 46% lead over Trump – and the newspaper described the results as “not encouraging.” Harris as Democrats won the popular vote in the last election, even though they lost the White House.

In a CNBC poll of registered voters published on October 24, Trump is ahead 48% to 46% (margin of error 3.1), and in an October 23 Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters, he is ahead by 47% 45% front (margin of error). 2.5) — a shift in Trump's favor since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal poll.

Harris has squandered Trump's lead over Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, although her lead has narrowed over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight's weighted polling average.

Important note: Presidential polls have often been wrong

And there's a lot of speculation about why they're wrong this year – and who might benefit. Read all about it in this story.

Big number

1.2 points. That's Harris' average lead over Trump in the FiveThirtyEight polling average. Meanwhile, the RealClearPolitics polling average shows Harris up 0.1, and Nate Silver sees Harris up a point in his Silver Bulletin forecast.

How does Harris fare against Trump in swing states?

According to FiveThirtyEight polling averages, Harris leads in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Trump leads in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. That means Harris would win the Electoral College if the polls in every swing state were completely accurate — but many of the seven swing states, including crucial Pennsylvania, have margins of less than one percentage point.

Surprising fact

An NBC News poll released Sept. 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, that lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters, found that 54% supported Harris, compared to 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said , they weren't sure who they would vote for. Support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden ran against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than previous peaks for Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in the 2020 poll and a 50-point lead in the 2016 poll . The survey had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

How did the debate affect the polls?

Polls leading up to the debate showed that Harris's rise in poll numbers appeared to have plateaued, including a Sept. 3-5 NPR/PBS/Marist poll of registered voters that showed Harris leading 49% to 48 % ahead of Trump, compared to a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate polls show that the majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly affect the race between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released on September 19 found that the majority of voters across all demographic groups viewed Harris' performance in the September 10 debate positively. Overall, 67% said she did well, compared to 40% who said the same goes for Trump. In an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted a few days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, Harris was up 52% ​​to 46% among likely voters and 51% to 47% among registered voters , essentially unchanged from her six-point lead among likely voters in ABC/Ipsos polls in late August and early August – even though 63% of Americans said Harris won the debate.

Important background

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after weeks of defying calls from his own party to end his re-election bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting for her official nomination in a virtual roll call before the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 in Philadelphia. Harris' surge in the polls coincides with a surge in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while Republican enthusiasm is at 71%. stagnates. according to a Monmouth University survey released Aug. 14.

Further reading

New HarrisX/Forbes poll: Trump leads Harris by 2 points – but 12% still decide (Forbes)

Swing state polls for the 2024 election: Latest polls show Trump in Nevada, Georgia (Update) (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump rises 1 point in latest poll – while Harris struggles with Latinos (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump leads in latest poll – but undecided voters could influence results (Forbes)

Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump rises 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris narrowly leads in latest poll (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads crucial swing state in latest poll (Forbes)

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads by 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump leads by 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

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