Iran is not ready for the consequences of another attack on Israel

• Israel carried out a series of precision strikes on military targets in Iran late last month.
• Iran has vowed to retaliate for the attacks that damaged Tehran's air defense network.
• Officials and analysts say the attacks have left Iran seriously vulnerable to further Israeli action.

Iran has signaled it would respond harshly to Israeli strikes in late October, which were revenge for Tehran's retaliatory ballistic missile strike earlier in the month.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, said over the weekend that the United States and Israel “will certainly receive a devastating response for their actions against Iran and the 'Resistance Front,'” referring to Tehran's proxy groups across the Middle East.

However, another direct Iranian attack on Israel – the third ever – invites further Israeli attacks at a time when Tehran is dangerously unprepared.

Officials and analysts say the October 26 Israeli strikes, which targeted Iran's integrated air defense network and ballistic missile production sites, have left Tehran extremely vulnerable to another round of Israeli military action.

An Israeli security official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive operations, told Business Insider on Monday that the attacks on Iranian military targets were “very precise, effective and powerful.”

The official said the attacks “precisely targeted Iran's radar and air defense systems,” putting the country at a “disadvantage.”

Israel has attacked several S-300s, a Russian-made surface-to-air missile system considered the most advanced air defense battery Iran operates. It is possible that Tehran no longer has any functioning ones.

Conflict analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, wrote in an analysis last week that the retaliatory strikes had “significantly weakened” Iran's integrated air defense system and made future Israeli attacks against the country “easier and less risky.” “

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant hinted that future military action was possible. He said last week that the attacks on Iran's air defense network “represent a great disadvantage for the enemy if we want to strike later.”

Aside from degrading Iran's air defenses, Israel has also inflicted significant damage on its ballistic missile production capabilities; Satellite images show damage to several military facilities linked to Tehran's missile program.

The long-term impact of the strikes remains to be seen. However, the Israeli security official said the damage to Iran's missile production facilities was so significant that the production of new ballistic missiles could be delayed for at least several years. However, analysts believe the delay could be shorter, perhaps months to a year at most.

The official said the limit on missile production meant Iran's ballistic missile arsenal was limited to its current level, but warned that the country still had an extensive munitions collection. Tehran is estimated to have thousands of ballistic missiles, hundreds of which were fired during Iran's attacks on Israel on April 13 and October 1.

“Their supplies are now fixed, which should affect their calculations,” the security official said of possible Iranian retaliation against Israel.

Any Iranian response could plunge the Middle East into more chaos that has gripped the region since the Hamas massacre in Israel on October 7, 2023. It could also result in the US military, which played an active role in defending Israel from Iran's attacks, being drawn further into the conflict.

The United States recently deployed an advanced missile defense battery to Israel and announced on Friday that it would deploy additional warships, fighters, tankers and long-range bombers to the region.

A Pentagon spokesman said the changes to troop levels were made “consistent with our commitments to protect U.S. citizens and forces in the Middle East, defend Israel, and de-escalate through deterrence and diplomacy.”