Highly potent synthetic opioids are already in Europe's drug supply chains

Contrary to all expectations, the opium ban in Afghanistan in 2022 does not seem to have yet affected the European heroin trade, showing that a high stability And reportedly ample supplies. Recent police operations have revealed that heroin arrives via vintage buses hidden in trucks and cars Routesfor example from Central Asia on the other side Balkansas well as less common trade routes. For example, in January 2024 the Italian authorities arrested a Nigerian national who trafficked heroin, which reportedly originated in the Golden Triangle. This could indicate diversified trading patterns Myanmar Today it is the world's largest opium producer.

However, as heroin smuggling flows continue to enter Europe, there is growing evidence that synthetic opioids have entered European markets, including fentanyl and its derivatives, which are extremely deadlyItazene and diverted or counterfeit prescription opioids. This suggests that trafficking of synthetic opioids to and within Europe is developing, but remains small-scale and largely invisible.

Europe's blind spot

As public health authorities, civil society drug harm reduction groups, and treatment and counseling organizations increase their efforts to prevent and prepare for a potential European opioid crisis, responses to supply control appear less prepared. There is one massive knowledge gap about the supply chains for synthetic opioids to and through Europe. Our field research suggests that the attention of The European fight against drugs and border security does not seem to focus on synthetic opioids, but rather on transatlantic cocaine flows into the region. This narrow focus on cocaine is partly due to this for the Massive increase in cocaine seizures in European ports and off the Spanish and West African coasts, potentially diverting attention from others harmful trends in the drug market.

With Western Europe's law enforcement and customs authorities focusing almost exclusively on drug flows from the West, another, more threatening risk could enter European ports through their unprotected rear entrances. The general assumption is that most fentanyls, nitazenes and their precursors on the European market originated in Chinawhich reflects that Pattern the maritime trade in other synthetic non-opioid drugs. However, this is not supported by sufficient evidence. The opioid trade is small-scale and involves small quantities – in 2023, European authorities confiscated just 3 kilograms Nitazene. Little is known about the importing criminal networks and their modus operandi, as well as human trafficking patterns. The assumption that China is the primary source may reflect the U.S. government's general concern about it Chinese supply of fentanyl rather than being based on solid evidence. Accordingly EUROPOL and the European Union Drug Agency, India and Russia seem to be too Countries of origin for synthetic opioids on European markets.

In addition to the maritime pipeline, the delivery of synthetic opioids also uses traditional shipping systems, often procured through dark web sites. This option poses fewer risks due to the minimal amount of opioids needed for maximum effect. Looking for a needle in a haystack is easier than finding a few grams of fentanyl in a haystack 350,000 pieces of mail which pass through the global DHL hub at Leipzig Airport every day. Sales and supply via the dark web also play an important role in the European internal market for opioids. For example, in November 2023, British law enforcement conducted a raid on a secret laboratory confiscated the “largest quantity of synthetic opioids” in UK history – 150,000 Nitazen-laced tablets destined for trading on the dark web.

Synthetic opioids are not only sourced from outside Europe, but can also be produced within the EU. In Europe, particularly in the USA, there is already a high level of expertise and infrastructure for the production of synthetic drugs Netherlands, Belgium And Poland, and production facilities for fentanyl were found France and Estonia. It is believed that also in Latvia and the Netherlands there is a production of this substance. Given the mobility of criminal networks and the region's open borders, a few laboratories are sufficient to serve users across Europe. In fact, our field research suggests that synthetic opioid trafficking networks exist in Northern and Western Europe. In addition, the dual-use nature of fentanyl precursors such as: NPP, that is legally traded for pharmaceutical purposes poses the risk of illegal diversion of small quantities. Global, France is the largest exporter from NPP (followed by India), while the UK is the second largest importer (after the US), according to International Narcotics Control Authority.

Dynamics of organized crime

It is unclear which organized crime groups are involved in the emerging market for synthetic opioids in Europe. Traditionally, Turkish organized crime networks have played a leading role in the heroin supply chain Europe, and Turkish groups are the leading foreign criminal traffickers in key heroin markets such as: Germany. The European heroin market is treasureD The market is around 5 billion euros and, despite its aging and stable user population, represents an attractive market for organized crime to supply opioids, according to some Analysts, Recent power struggles between European Turkish criminal networks point to a heroin shortage that has led to competition for the remaining trafficking streams. However, the evidence (stable heroin levels and lower heroin seizures) does not yet support this possible dynamic.

Still, big changes could be afoot in Europe's drug markets and organized crime. In November 2023, the Italian Guardia di Finanza and the US Drug Enforcement Agency announced revealed a human trafficking network between the United States and Italy that led to this Seizure of 100,000 “doses” of an unspecified amount of fentanyl and arrest of 18 suspects. According to the Italian secret service The 'Ndranghetaa major player in organized crime and international drug trafficking, is currently exploring opportunities in the synthetic opioid trade. Furthermore, the documented The presence of Mexican organized crime networks in the Dutch drug business could lead to a transfer of know-how in the production of synthetic opioids central role Mexican networks in the production of fentanyl for the US market. A similar pattern of knowledge transfer led to the gradual establishment of more industrialized methamphetamine production in the region Netherlands.

What's next for Europe?

The impact of the Taliban's opium ban remains to be seen, but a general heroin shortage in Europe seems unlikely at this point, as other sources could offset any reduction from Afghanistan. For example, Heroin from Southeast Asia and South Americaboth regions with a centuries-old history of opium poppy cultivation. (See “The Looming Threat of Synthetic Opioids in Europe?” for more information).

There is evidence that highly potent synthetic opioids have already found their way into European drug supply chains, regardless of the dynamics of heroin supply. Currently, the European market for synthetic opioids appears to be small. However, the supply data is not current and does not necessarily reflect the rapidly changing and open European drug markets, in which many different organized crime groups compete with each other. The enormous gaps in knowledge about opioid trafficking and production patterns must be filled sooner rather than later given the uncertainty about what will happen next in a deadly opioid market.

To contribute to a field research-based understanding of these dynamics, the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime launched the European Emerging Drug Trends Monitor, which aims to monitor wholesale and retail dynamics in European drug markets in 11 major European cities, EU, Ukraine and Türkiye. Synthetic opioids are part of the surveillance system.