These are the “guiding circles” that could determine the next president

Now that Election Day is finally here, there are some counties that experts are watching closely because their results could shed light on who the next president will be.

Known as “Bellwether Counties,” these swing counties have, with some exceptions, consistently sided with the winning candidate for decades.

Matthew Bergbower, a political science professor at Indiana State University, described a lead district as a “microcosm of the nation” in terms of political preferences.

Although his county, Vigo County in Indiana, diverged with the election of Donald Trump in 2020, it has voted for the winning candidate in every election since 1952.

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Clallam County, Washington state is the only county that has voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1980. Clallam County residents are proud of its history as the “Last Leading County” in America.

This year, the county looks as divided as ever.

Clallam County Republican Chairwoman Pam Blakeman told Fox News Digital that she believes the election “will be close in our county, but I see it trending toward Trump.”

She attributes this to good Republican turnout and a ground game that she says is “the most active I’ve ever seen.”

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SBA Pro-Life America says its voter outreach program has knocked on 4 million doors in swing states. (SBA Pro-Life America)

However, Ben Anderstone, a progressive political consultant in Washington, told Fox News Digital that “a Trump victory in Clallam County would be a bit of a surprise at this point.”

“This year it is likely that Clallam County will be on the left side of the country,” he said. “In our August primary, Clallam County was very Democratic, about 57% to 43%. Lower turnout voters in Clallam County are many more Republican, so we expect the presidential election to be much closer. However, our model suggests that Clallam will only tighten this to 53-47% of Democrats or so.”

As in Clallam County, the presidential election could easily go either way. But with GOP nominee former President Trump and Democratic nominee Vice President Harris facing razor-thin margins, three counties — Bucks, Erie and Northampton in Pennsylvania — stand out as particularly important.

Pennsylvania is the largest swing state with 19 electoral votes, making it the biggest target for both Trump and Harris. During this election cycle, Trump and Harris have had strong representation in the state and in these three counties.

Vice President Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, leads a rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania on November 4, 2024. (Fox News – Paul Steinhauser)

On the final day before Election Day, Trump campaigned in both eastern and western Pennsylvania, and Harris dedicated the entire day to stops across the state. Vice presidential candidates Sen. JD Vance of Ohio and Democratic Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz also made stops in Pennsylvania throughout the campaign.

“Both campaigns see the path to the White House through Pennsylvania,” said Berwood Yost, director of the national polling group Center for Opinion Research. Likewise, he said the path to victory in Pennsylvania runs through Bucks, Erie and Northampton counties.

Bucks is primarily a suburban district north of Philadelphia. Erie, located in the extreme northwest of Pennsylvania on Lake Erie, is predominantly rural and has a significantly smaller population. After all, Northampton is a suburb in eastern Pennsylvania and home to Lehigh University, a private research university.

According to Yost, all three reflect many of the key demographic characteristics that make Pennsylvania so competitive, such as: B. Racial composition, educational attainment and population density.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is shown at a campaign rally on October 29, 2024 in Allentown, Pennsylvania. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

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President Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 by a narrow margin of 1.17 percent. The gaps were similarly close in Bucks (4.37), Erie (1.03) and Northampton (0.72).

Yost said that people in those counties, like the rest of the country, are “generally dissatisfied” with the economy and want some sort of change, which is a positive indicator for Trump. However, he said: “The closeness of the race makes it seem like they couldn't take advantage.”

“I think part of the reason the race is so close is because that message hasn't been consistently expressed by participants,” he said. “These distractions have raised some concerns among some voters.”

Yost said the race will depend on what independents and traditional Republicans who are not enthusiastic about Trump decide at the ballot box.

“For me, this will really be the turning point of this election,” he said. “If they are uncertain and think it’s because of the economy, that’s a plus for Trump. If they go into the voting booth and think about something else, that’s negative for the Trump campaign.”

Get the latest updates on the 2024 election, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital Election Center.