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Rafael's record shows that rare landfalls could occur during the November hurricane season

Tropical Storm Rafael formed in the Caribbean on Monday afternoon and is expected to experience “rapid intensification,” the National Hurricane Center says. It is expected to become a hurricane as it heads toward the Gulf of Mexico, a rarity in November. Wind shear, dry air and slightly cooler water temperatures will weaken it as it approaches the northern Gulf by the end of the week.

According to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach, Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. On average, there are 14 storms per year.

Named storms in November

Since 2013, eight named storms have developed in November. Of those eight, only four made landfall and only two reached the United States.

How rare are hurricane landfalls in the United States in November?

Of the 287 hurricanes since 1851 that made landfall in the US mainland in NOAA's database, only four did so in November. Three landed in Florida and one in North Carolina.

Where do storms usually form in November?

Most storms originate in the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico and move north and northeast, while an east-moving low usually carries the storm away. Depending on the circumstances, this configuration often results in storms near the Florida Peninsula. This is also the case in October, although the number of storms in November is significantly lower.

Tropical systems become less common in November due to less favorable atmospheric conditions. Additionally, storms that do develop will have a harder time making landfall in the U.S. because cold fronts are more common during this time. These cold fronts can keep storms off the East Coast or confined to the Caribbean.

How many storms have formed this season?

There have been 17 named storms this hurricane season. Ten developed into hurricanes, three of which became major hurricanes

Where is Rafael?

Although November 30th marks the official end of hurricane season, we may not be done yet. According to NOAA's August forecast, this season could be “among the busiest on record.” Tropical activity typically tapers off after mid-October, but storms could continue into December this year.

Contributors: Gabe Hauari and Doyle Rice

Source: USA TODAY Network reporting and research; NOAA

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