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NYT Election 'Needle' may not be available due to tech workers' strike

The New York Times Tech Guild began its strike Monday morning.

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The New York Times' popular campaign title “Needle” may not be available on election night as the publication's technology fraternity continues to strike.

The Times' Needle estimates the final outcome of an election based on partial election results – all displayed on an interactive model. The more votes are counted, the more “confident” the needle becomes about the final outcome of the election.

The Times' needle, first introduced in 2016, may not be available on election night this year because the Times Tech Guild, which represents more than 700 software developers, designers, data analysts and product managers, has been on strike since Monday. Many of these people help treat the needle.

In an article published by the Times on Tuesday, the publication discussed what could happen if the strike continues into Tuesday evening.

“If we are unable to broadcast the Needle results live, our journalists plan to regularly test the statistical model, review the results and post updates on our live blog about what they see – to give our readers a glimpse give where the race actually ends over the course of the night,” the team wrote.

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How does the needle work?

According to the Times, the needle takes into account which votes remain to be counted in a given race and which candidate is doing better than expected.

“Once the initial results are in, The Needle will compare the reports to pre-election expectations, county by county and precinct by precinct,” the Times’ election analysis team wrote Tuesday. “It will then estimate who will win the remaining votes based on the patterns identified in the results so far.”

Pre-election expectations are compiled from New York Times/Siena College polls, other public surveys, voter registration files, the U.S. Census and previous election results.

Using a statistical model, the needle adjusts its recorded expectations as it receives results. County data helps keep the needle most accurate because counties represent the smallest geographic units.

The Times collects unofficial election results from local, state and federal agencies across the country to “feed the cause.”

Why is the Times Tech Guild on strike?

In a post published on X (formerly Twitter) on Monday, the Times Tech Guild shared a graphic of its own “Needle” predicting the chance of a fair contract. The graphic says: “Strike safe. 100 percent chance of work stoppage.”

Joe Van Acker, a program manager at the Times, has been vocal on the Tech Guild's social media about the guild's negotiations with the company.

“Supporting the newsroom on election night was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for me, but one that I, along with my colleagues, would happily sacrifice to achieve a fair contract,” Acker said in a statement shared by the guild on X.

The Times Tech Guild unionized in March 2022 and continues to work on drafting its first contract.

The guild has been negotiating since late Sunday and is interested in adding a “just cause” clause to its contract, meaning employees can only be terminated for misconduct or another reason. The guild is also calling for a raise, pay equity and return-to-work guidelines.

According to the Times, Times management on Sunday offered workers a 2.5% annual wage increase, a minimum 5% pay increase for promotions and a $1,000 ratification bonus. The offer also maintained current office work requirements of two days per week until June, while allowing employees to work fully remotely for three weeks per year.

“We are disappointed that Tech Guild leadership is attempting to jeopardize our journalistic mission at this critical time,” Hannah Yang, Times chief growth and customer officer, and Jason Sobel, chief technology officer, said in a statement published by the Times Email to employees.

Greta Cross is a national trends reporter for USA TODAY. Follow her on X and Instagram @gretalcross. Story idea? Email her at [email protected].

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