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How NBC News Decision Desk campaign predictions work

As votes are counted on election night and in the days following, the NBC News Decision Desk will project the winners of over 600 races after a careful process of data collection and verification. That's how it works.

The National Election Pool, a consortium of media companies that includes NBC News, works with an election data collection company called Edison Research to tally votes and conduct exit polls in every county and state.

Edison Research collects statewide voting results in several ways: through real-time vote counts on official state and county websites or through “vote reporters” dispatched to election offices across the country to tally vote totals as ballots are counted. This voting data then goes through a rigorous quality check, and NBC News then independently calls each race based on its own analysis of the data. Edison Research and NBC News separately have additional tools to check the quality of incoming data. (Read more about these processes here.)

Here are the top Decision Desk calls and characterizations to expect from NBC News on election night:

  • Predicted winner: The Decision Desk assumes that one candidate will win the race.
  • When a race is taken into account too early to callThis means that either there is not enough data to definitively determine the margin or that a significant margin for a candidate does not yet meet the Decision Desk's standards for a posting.
  • When there is a race too close to callThis means the final lead in the race is less than 5%. The Decision Desk will not use this characterization until it is statistically certain that the race will be that close.
  • The Decision Desk will issue one leaning Characterization when there is confidence that the candidate in front will win, but it may take some time for the race to reach its standards for a call.

NBC News will not call a race until after the last scheduled statewide poll deadline in that race and when it can be statistically determined that a candidate's lead is insurmountable.

In general elections, on the other hand, voters are interviewed in person as they leave or leave the polling station after casting their vote. For early voters, there is a voter survey by telephone, SMS or email.

Exit polls ask voters which candidates they voted for and what issues motivated them, as well as questions about their demographic background. These surveys are conducted anonymously.

Election polls can give an idea of ​​who voted before the final and why Votes are counted. NBC News does not release exit poll data characterizing the status of a race until all polls statewide close to avoid influencing a vote that is still underway.

The NBC News Decision Desk also uses exit poll data to determine whether races can be projected.

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