Miami (Ohio) vs. Ball State Prediction: College Football Picks for Week 11

Tuesday is a big night in the United States as MACtion returns on November 5th. At the start of Week 11 there are two games from the Mid-American Conference on the program. Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan and Miami (OH) vs. Ball State are the two in the spotlight and we'll get two more on Wednesday as well.

Both games feature double-digit away favorites, but we've seen some underdog drama in these midweek games so we'll see if we can get some of that here. We have money on the under in both games, so maybe that's something we should consider. I'll write both down, starting with my stronger opinion on the bird fight between the RedHawks and Cardinals.

***Top Resources for College Football Betting***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to tips, public betting splits data and live video coverage from VSiN Upgrade to VSiN Pro. Get your first month for less than $10.*

For all of this week's college football insights, check out our College Football Week 11 hub.

8pm ET

Ball State enters this game ranked last in the nation in yards per play allowed. League play fared slightly better, as the Cardinals allowed 7.77 YPP in non-conference play and 7.12 YPP against MAC opponents. They allowed “only” 6.4 YPP in four games in October, including a competitive loss to Vanderbilt.

But Miami has recently found another gear. After a slow start with losses to Northwestern, Cincinnati, Notre Dame and Toledo, Chuck Martin's team has won three straight, scoring at least 30 points in each game. In this case, if they reach 30, they will cover.

And I think they could. Miami has over seven yards per play in four conference games. And the defense has only allowed 4.1 YPP. This is a RedHawks crew that is almost +3 YPP in conference games. This is absolutely dominant. And it's not like Ball State is better than the teams they've already beaten.

In the loss to Toledo, the RedHawks only had 5.1 YPP, so that shows what they did against everyone else. I would put the Cardinals much closer to “everyone else.” Miami actually had 6.4 YPP against Ohio, a pretty good team in a game that was 30-6 entering the fourth quarter, so it wasn't even as close as the final score.

It's worth noting that the total is falling as the forecast calls for rain and wind gusts of around 30 mph. Ball State has allowed 5.8 yards per carry in conference games. I'm not sure Miami will be able to throw the ball often, but they have the better defense, better running game, and better passing game.

I would consider quitting this number. I think the spread could go down again given the weather forecast and the possibility of an ugly game.

Pick: Miami (OH) -12

Different Tuesday game

Bowling Green Falcons (-12.5, 49) at Central Michigan Chippewas: The weather in Mount Pleasant will be anything but pleasant for this game. Just like the game in Muncie, wind and rain are expected to be big factors, which is why this total is down four points and likely not reached yet. Gusts of up to 30 degrees can occur and it rains continuously.

Central Michigan ranks 30th nationally with 5.02 yards per carry. They don't do a lot of things well, but running the football is one of them. CMU's problem was taking care of football. They have a negative TD/INT ratio, but they shouldn't have to blow it big here. Both run defenses are bad. I actually think the chips can stay close here. They have a trio of competent running backs. Bowling Green will have to rely heavily on Terion Stewart and the weather could take Connor Bazelak out of the game.

Pick: Central Michigan +12.5