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Large majority are confident that the results of the US elections in 2024 count

Politicians canvassing voters often say, “Every vote counts.” Nettie Wildrick believes that's certainly true in Iowa.

Wildrick, a registered Democrat who is “reluctantly” voting for Vice President Kamala Harris, the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee, says she is “mostly confident” that the results of the upcoming general election will count as Iowa's intended electors.

“Even if we vote red or blue, I’m pretty confident my vote will matter,” said Wildrick, a 28-year-old medical technician from Fort Madison.

But she doubts the statewide results will reflect voters' intentions, a view that puts her in the minority among likely Iowa voters. She fears the Electoral College will override the popular vote.

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll shows that 76% of likely voters are confident that results across the U.S. will be counted as voters intended, while 23% are doubtful. One percent say they are not sure.

Likely voters in Iowa were asked, “How confident are you that votes in the upcoming election will be counted statewide the way voters intended – very confident, mostly confident, mostly doubtful, or very doubtful?”

When asked the same question about Iowa, the poll shows even greater confidence that the 2024 general election results will count among voters in the Hawkeye State.

Iowa poll: Kamala Harris overtakes Donald Trump and takes the lead shortly before Election Day. Here's how

There is little partisan difference between the 91% of Iowans who are confident the results will be counted as voters in Iowa and the 8% who are doubtful. One percent are not sure.

The survey was conducted by Selzer & Co. October 28-31. It surveyed 808 likely voters in Iowa who have already voted or say they definitely will vote in the 2024 general election. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

The survey results show that confidence that the 2024 results will count among voters across the country has increased compared to opinions ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.

In a November 2021 Iowa poll, 65% of likely voters said they were confident and 30% doubted the 2022 results would be counted across the U.S. as voters intended.

That poll came as former President Donald Trump spread baseless claims — which election officials and judges have rejected — that the 2020 election was stolen from him and handed to Democrat Joe Biden through widespread fraud.

Despite her confidence in the integrity of Iowa's election, Wildrick, a poll respondent, says she is “very doubtful” about the statewide vote count.

Wildrick recalled watching the 2016 general election results on television as her friend sobbed on her shoulder as Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton lost to Trump.

The next day, she recalled her dismay when it was reported in the media that Clinton had won the popular vote by nearly 2.9 million votes, but fell short of Trump's 304 votes in the Electoral College by 227 votes as Trump continued to win states.

“The American people wanted Hillary Clinton with a majority vote, but we were dumped on Donald Trump, and it was all thanks to the Electoral College,” Wildrick said. “I feel like it could screw us up again.”

Republicans are more confident about the count before the 2024 elections than before the 2022 midterms

More than a third of Republicans and Trump supporters (39% each) say they doubt the results of the 2024 general election will be counted as voters intended across the country.

The fact that 60% of Republicans and 59% of Trump supporters say they are confident is a result of the 2021 poll, in which 46% of Republican voters and 42% of Trump supporters were confident in the statewide vote count .

Arlene Sayre, 86, a poll respondent and retiree from Burlington, described her political affiliation as supporting “anyone who can do the best for our country.” She cast her vote early for Trump.

More: How do the results of previous polls in Iowa compare to the results of the presidential election in Iowa?

Sayre says she is “largely doubtful” about the integrity of the 2024 vote count in Iowa and nationally.

She said she was convinced the results in electing Biden were not seen as intended by voters, pointing to debunked reports that thousands of dead voters cast ballots in crucial swing states in the 2020 election.

“When you hear things like that, you don’t know if they’re being counted correctly or not,” Sayre said.

Experts say ballots fraudulently cast in the name of someone no longer living represent only a tiny fraction of all registered votes. Even then, in some cases it may be a typographical error rather than fraud.

Micheal Roan, 33, a poll respondent from Colfax who works as a recreation specialist, is a registered Republican who will vote for Trump.

More: How the Iowa poll is conducted How is the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted? We answer your top questions.

Roan, who is “mostly doubtful” about the nationwide election results count but “mostly confident” about Iowa's count, pointed to recent arson attacks on ballot boxes in Washington, Oregon and Arizona that destroyed hundreds of ballots cast for the 2024 election .

“I don’t know what impact this will have on our election system,” Roan said.

Most Democrats trust the results will be counted properly

A large majority of Democrats (93%) say they are confident that the 2024 general election results will count as electoral votes nationally, including more than half (56%) who say they are “very confident.” . Seven percent are doubtful. The split among Harris supporters is similar.

Meanwhile, 24% of independents say they have doubts and 75% are confident the results will count as votes nationally. One percent are not sure.

Lisa Shannon, a 58-year-old pollster from Marion who works in city government, said she is an independent voter for Harris.

Shannon says she is “very confident” about the vote count nationally and in Iowa because there will be checks and balances should challenges to the results end up in the state and U.S. supreme courts.

“I believe that our election officials are people of integrity and that they will ensure that ballots are handled and counted properly,” Shannon said.

Marissa Payne covers the Iowa Statehouse and politics for the Register. You can reach her by email at [email protected]. Follow her on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @marissajpayne.

About the Iowa Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted October 28-31, 2024, for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom from Des Moines-based Selzer & Co. is based on telephone interviews with 808 Iowans ages 18 and older who say they will definitely vote or have already voted for president and other offices in the 2024 general election.

Quantel Research interviewers contacted 1,038 Iowa adults using randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers provided by Dynata. The interviews were conducted in English. Responses were adjusted by age, gender, and congressional district to reflect the total population based on current census data.

Questions based on the sample of 808 likely Iowa voters have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated 19 times out of 20 using the same questions and methodology, the results would not differ from the actual population value by more than plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents – for example by gender or age – have a greater margin of error.

Republishing the copyrighted Iowa poll without attribution and on digital platforms with links to original content The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is banned.

This story has been updated to add video.

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