Republican Tim Sheehy will defeat Sen. Jon Tester in the competitive race in Montana, CNN predicts

CNN
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According to CNN forecasts, Republican Tim Sheehy will defeat three-term Montana Senator Jon Tester, expanding Republicans' newly won Senate majority.

Montana has long been a deep red state in presidential elections — and one in two statewide offices is currently held by a Republican. But Tester, a seven-fingered dirt farmer who left a moderate profile on Capitol Hill, had previously defied political gravity with his victories in 2006, 2012 and 2018.

Still, his seat — along with Democratic seats in two other red states, Ohio and West Virginia — was a key target for Republicans this year. Republicans Bernie Moreno and Jim Justice won those races.

This year, for the first time, Tester had to share the ballot with Trump, who won the state by 16 percentage points in 2020 and by nearly 20 percentage points in 2016 – a reality that meant the Democratic incumbent was trailing the top of his party had to be in the double-digit range in order to be competitive.

Democrats portrayed Sheehy, a retired Navy SEAL, as an out-of-state millionaire with questionable ranching credentials and commitment to public lands — the same playbook used against Republican Matt Rosendale in 2018.

Sheehy moved to Montana in 2014 after retiring from the military, but Republicans believed rugging had limited appeal in a state seeing more transplants in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

In the final weeks of the race, Democrats stepped up their attacks on Sheehy's contradictory story from nearly a decade ago about how a bullet got lodged in his arm. Outside groups ran ads with the park ranger who Sheehy told that his gun had accidentally discharged in Glacier National Park, and another spot with a retired Navy SEAL who served with Sheehy insisting that the candidate did not leave the gunshot wound in Afghanistan, saying: “There is no honor in lying about your service.”

Republicans, for their part, sought to link Tester – who did not attend the Democratic convention or campaign for president – with President Joe Biden's administration and the Democratic congressional leadership.

A big question mark hanging over the race was a ballot measure that would enshrine abortion rights in the Montana Constitution. Such ballot measures have gained traction even in deep red states since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022 and have become a political boon for Democrats.

Republicans in Montana have pushed and enacted a number of abortion restrictions in recent years, only to find them largely struck down by state courts as unconstitutional.