Kamala Harris passed over Josh Shapiro – what if she hadn't? – The striker

By Lauren Markoe
November 6, 2024

As Democrats licked their wounds Wednesday, some pointed to Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and said, “She should have voted for him.”

That means that if Vice President Kamala Harris had chosen Shapiro, an observant and proudly pro-Israel Jew, as her running mate instead of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, she might have won Pennsylvania, the swing state with the most electoral votes. She may not have lost Zionists worried about the war in Gaza to former President Donald Trump. Maybe she would have even won.

One woman posted to X on Tuesday: “If Kamala had chosen Josh Shapiro, this evening might have been very different.”

If Kamala had chosen Josh Shapiro, this evening might have been very different.

— Daniella Greenbaum Davis (@DGreenbaum) November 6, 2024

Shapiro was a top contender to be Harris' running mate, and not just because of his popularity during a critical swing period. Shapiro, whose motto is “get sh_t done,” had impressed many outside Pennsylvania with a hands-on approach, evident in the quick repair of a collapsed section of Interstate 95 in Philadelphia in 2023.

Some called his Jewishness and vocal support of Israel a liability, especially after a semester of heated pro-Palestinian campus protests across the country. He rejected allegations that anti-Semitism had helped to derail his chances. Others suggested that he turned down the job, preferring to gain the upper hand himself in the future.

This post-election quarterbacking of Shapiro continues, even as many experts point out that they still need to analyze reams of data and otherwise conduct a proper autopsy of the election before they can identify any missteps.

“We haven’t even left Shiva behind,” Jarrod Bernstein, former President Barack Obama’s liaison to the American Jewish community, said in an interview Wednesday.

Bernstein, like most others who have worked in Democratic politics for years, said a Harris-Shapiro ticket probably wouldn't have made a significant difference. Political experts generally agree that the vice presidential candidate is rarely a key factor in the outcome of a presidential campaign. And Trump's victory was decisive: He is on track to win all seven key battlegrounds as well as the popular vote, something no Republican has achieved since 2004.

The reasons for Harris' loss reflect a deep polarization in the nation, “far more systemic than any single campaign decision and, frankly, goes far beyond any campaign decision,” said Amy Spitalnick, CEO of the Jewish Council for Public Affairs.

Trump's campaign “appealed to a large part of the country,” Spitalnick noted. “So it’s really important to understand it through that lens.”

But speculation about what might have been on the list with Shapiro is likely to continue: He is still the governor of the swing state with the most electoral votes (19); enjoys high approval ratings; and received praise for a rousing speech at the Democratic National Convention in August. Many see Shapiro, 51, as a strong contender for the presidency in 2028.

Shapiro vs. Taylor Swift

Much of the enthusiasm for Shapiro, who has made the governor's mansion kosher and sends his children to a Jewish day school, rests on his popularity in Pennsylvania, a state whose mix of urban, suburban and rural areas makes him something of a stand-in for the whole country does…

He was first elected to statewide office as attorney general in 2017 and defeated Republican Doug Mastriano for governor in 2022, 57% to 42%, beating forecasts and exit polls.

In September 2024, a poll showed Shapiro's approval ratings ahead not only of Harris and Trump, but also of Taylor Swift, who was born and raised in the state. Nearly 60% of voters surveyed strongly or somewhat agreed with Shapiro's leadership.

Outside Pennsylvania, many voters said Shapiro was the better choice as soon as Harris chose Walz in early August, and those voices reverberated as polls showed her and Trump in a virtual dead heat in the fall.

She “missed a big opportunity to turn to the center” when she overtook Shapiro, pollster Nate Silver wrote in September.

That idea resurfaced after Harris' loss. With the results showing voters have taken a step to the right – Trump even increased his vote share in many blue states compared to 2020 – Shapiro appeared to some to be a smarter choice than the more left-leaning Walz. The idea is still often linked to the idea that anti-Semitism played a role in Harris' choice of vice president.

“It's too early to suggest that Josh Shapiro would have been a better choice for vice president and giving in to anti-Semites in the progressive coalition was a bad idea?” asked a user on X named Jonathan Greenberg in the early hours of Wednesday morning .

Too early to suggest that Josh Shapiro would have been a better choice for vice president and pandering to anti-Semites in the progressive coalition was a bad idea?

— Jonathan Greenberg📟 (@JGreenbergSez) November 6, 2024

But even before Harris chose Walz, many expressed dismay at a campaign to block Shapiro but not non-Jewish candidates for the office who were also very pro-Israel. Still others said it was not just Shapiro's support for Israel but also his criticism of the pro-Palestinian protest movement that had led some Democrats to oppose him.

Jeremy Kazzaz, a Democratic lawyer who founded a group in Pittsburgh to combat anti-Semitism, said he would not attribute Harris' defeat to the choice of a vice president – or to any single factor. Instead, he called Tuesday's results “a reflection of the illiberalism that has been embraced in the Democratic Party.”

“That makes Trump seem like the better choice for some ordinary Americans,” he said.

Bernstein, the former Obama official, said speculation about how a different decision might have led to a different outcome is generally of limited use.

“If Aaron Judge hadn't gone completely cold in the World Series, would the Yankees have won?” he asked rhetorically. “I don't know. Maybe.”