According to a CNBC poll, the presidential election is a dead heat, even if Trump Harris is far ahead in economic terms

With less than two weeks to go before the election, the CNBC All-America Economic Survey shows that the presidential contest remains statistically dead both nationally and in battleground states and is unchanged from the August poll, although there are some notable moves in important groups.

Nationally, former President Donald Trump has a 48% to 46% lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, within the poll's 3.1% margin of error and unchanged from August. In the seven battleground states, Trump leads 48% to 47%, within the 4% margin of error for this portion of the poll.

The poll was conducted October 15-19 and included a total sample of 1,000 voters across the country. The statewide sample included 186 voters from the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. An additional 400 voters were surveyed in these states, for a total of 586 voters from battleground states.

Both at the national level and in the battlegrounds, economic issues remain the top concerns of voters. Trump has a clear lead among voters who prioritize inflation, the economy and addressing the needs of the middle class. With a margin of 42% to 24%, Voters say they will be better off financially if Trump wins. 29% say their financial situation would not change no matter who is elected. Voters who say inflation, the cost of living and the economy as a whole are the most important issues give Trump a 13-point lead. Inflation remained the main theme throughout the election cycle.

“Although the data shows inflation has theoretically slowed, over the last three quarters it has become more important, not less important, in people's minds,” said Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research, the Democratic pollster for the survey .

The poll also showed Trump with a 35-point lead among voters most concerned about immigration and a 19-point lead on crime and safety.

Harris is a leader on a variety of second-tier issues, areas of high importance that fall below economics. These include a 31-point Harris lead among voters most concerned about abortion, 9 points on protecting democracy, 8 points on health care and 60 points on climate change.

The question for Harris is whether collective support on these smaller issues will be enough to offset her shortcomings on the big economic issues. The two candidates are statistically tied as to who would be better suited to bring positive change to the nation.

Character issues seem to make the race close. Harris has a 13-point lead when respondents were asked who has better mental and physical health to become president. When it comes to the question of who is more honest and trustworthy, she is ten points ahead of Trump. Still, both numbers show an improvement for Trump compared to a September NBC News poll.

And Trump has also improved his popularity ratings. His net favorability rating of -13 points (positive minus negative) from August has improved to -6 nationally. Views of Harris are only slightly less negative at -10, compared to -8 in August. (She had risen to +3 in the NBC poll in September, but now appears to have given up her post-convention gains.) Harris is doing better in battleground states, with a net favorability rating of -5, matching Trump's.

The poll shows the American electorate is divided along racial, gender, economic and educational lines, with some movements beneath the surface. The gender gap remains the most glaring gap, but Trump's net support of +17 among men is greater than Vice President Harris's +12 among women. Harris maintains a large 27-point lead among voters of color, but lost 10 points compared to August. She has a 38-point lead among voters of color in battleground states. Compared to August, Trump has improved his numbers among less educated and lower-income voters, while Harris has done better among middle-class and wealthier voters.

“Trump's advantage is that he wins men more than he loses women,” said Micah Roberts, partner at Public Opinion Strategies, the Republican pollster for the survey. “It's a difference because of the younger men, and the younger men's advantage is big, but for Harris it's not as strong among younger women and especially older women.”

Harris has an 8-point lead among women over 50 nationally, but is tied with Trump in the group in battleground states.

While the officially measured inflation rate has fallen sharply, the CNBC poll shows that Americans simply aren't feeling it. Three quarters of the population believe prices are still rising, with a majority of 45% saying they are rising faster than before. Only 16% say prices have leveled off and only 6% see a decline; Only 7% expect their incomes to rise faster than inflation, 27% say they are keeping pace with inflation, and 63% say they are losing ground. At the same time, just 26% say the economy is excellent or good, while 73% answer “fair” or “poor,” a slight improvement from August.

Still, 37% of the public believe the economy will improve next year. This is the highest value in more than three years. This increase typically occurs around election time and may be more related to Americans' views on the election outcome than their views on the economy.

The full survey results can be viewed here.