Trump's victory complicates a three-way race for Republican Senate leader

WASHINGTON – President-elect Donald Trump's dramatic victory has complicated the three-way fight to replace Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, who is stepping down at the end of the year.

Two of McConnell's trusted surrogates – Senate Minority Leader John Thune of South Dakota, the No. 2 Republican leader, and Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, who previously served in that role – as well as Sen. Rick Scott, a conservative from Trump's home state of Florida, are all running Senate presidency after Republicans regained the majority in Tuesday's election.

A third John who was considered a potential candidate, GOP Conference Chairman John Barrasso of Wyoming, decided not to run for the top job and will instead run for the No. 2 Majority Whip post.

Because of their years of leadership and relationships within the GOP conference, Thune and Cornyn are seen as McConnell's most likely successors. But the couple broke with Trump several times and tried to reconcile with the former and future president throughout the year.

As Trump returns to power, Scott and his conservative allies are making the case that he should be the one leading the Senate, even though he won just 10 votes when he challenged McConnell for the top job two years ago.

The Trump loyalist personally asked Trump for his support in May when he told the former president he was making a bid to become Republican leader, a source familiar with conservation told NBC News.

“He supported me when I ran against McConnell two years ago; I hope he supports me this time,” Scott said on Fox Business on Wednesday, adding that he and Trump had been texting back and forth. “I am doing everything I can to ensure his plans are implemented.”

Trump has not commented publicly on the race and is staying out of it for now, according to a Republican source who spoke on condition of anonymity to share his private strategy.

A Scott and Trump ally, Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., urged Trump to support Scott, a former Florida governor who was running for re-election to the Senate on Tuesday night.

“If you have influence over President Trump, ask President Trump to come forward publicly and say he wants to work with someone as successful as Rick Scott to achieve his goals. “We have to do great things. We have to deliver,” Johnson told a host on the conservative channel “The First.”

“We need outside-the-box, paradigm-shifting thinking in the U.S. Senate, and working with President Trump, he's going to need something like Rick Scott,” Johnson said. “So urge the president to come forward and publicly support Rick Scott – that's probably what Rick will need to become majority leader.”

But even though Trump has been the most powerful Republican in the country for nearly nine years, it's not clear whether supporting him would guarantee a Scott victory. Leadership elections are closed matters and are conducted by secret ballot, meaning a senator's vote is not publicly known.

To win, a candidate needs a simple majority. If no candidate receives a single vote in the first round, the candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated and the race begins with the top two candidates.

The victorious Republicans return to Washington next week. Sen. Mike Lee of Utah plans to host a forum with the trio of candidates on Tuesday. The election takes place on Wednesday and newly elected senators, including Bernie Moreno of Ohio, Tim Sheehy of Montana and Jim Justice of West Virginia, are eligible to participate.

In an appearance on CNBC this week, Thune encouraged Trump to stay out of the internal leadership race.

“Obviously he could have a significant amount of influence over it if he wanted to, but honestly I think I would prefer and it would probably be in his best interest to keep me out of it,” Thune said.

“These secret Senate elections are probably best left to the senators, and in the end he'll have to work with all of us,” Thune added, “but whatever he decides will be his prerogative, just as we know.”

Thune's comments are interesting because he probably has the most work to do in convincing his colleagues that he is on the same wavelength as Trump. Thune criticized Trump for his actions around January 6, 2021, as well as some policy proposals and offensive rhetoric. He supported fellow Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., in the presidential primary and then endorsed Trump months later after Scott dropped out.

Just last year, Cornyn said that Trump could not win in 2024, that “President Trump's time has passed” and that he would look for other candidates to support in the GOP primaries. Months later, as Trump destroyed his primary opponents, Cornyn endorsed Trump.

Ahead of the leadership race, both Thune and Cornyn have tried to make peace with Trump. Thune visited him at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida in March, and they have spoken several times since then, most recently last week, according to a source familiar with Thune's schedule.

Cornyn joined Trump last month at a rally in Reno, Nevada, for Republican Senate candidate Sam Brown, whose race is currently too close to call, according to NBC News forecasts. Cornyn was also on Trump's visit to Texas.

“As I told President Trump, I’m interested in getting the band back together,” Cornyn told Fox News host Neil Cavuto on Monday.

Still, it's the votes of their GOP colleagues that these candidates will need. And Cornyn and Thune hope their travel and relationships with current and new senators will serve as a bridge between the more moderate wing of the GOP conference and the MAGA wing of the party, which was already gaining influence before Trump's victory on Tuesday.

A source familiar with Thune's operation said he raised more than $33 million this cycle through his accounts, for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and directly for candidates. He was a top fundraiser for the NRSC and chaired more than 200 events for candidates and the NRSC this cycle, the source said.

Cornyn, who held the post of party chairman before Thune, claims that he held that post as the GOP leadership's vote counter when Trump's tax cuts were passed in the Senate. The Texan also spent October visiting battleground states to campaign with candidates, raising more than $26 million through the end of September, a source familiar with his political campaign said.

He has crisscrossed the country advocating for colleagues including Sen. Ted Cruz, a fellow Texas Republican for whom he has raised hundreds of thousands of dollars this cycle.