Alabama Crimson Tide at LSU Tigers: Betting, Predictions, Odds, Tips, Lines, Forecasts, Trends

In another big SEC matchup that could have a lot of implications for the College Football Playoff, the 11th-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide hosts the No. 14 LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge on Saturday night.

Alabama was ranked 11th in the initial CFP rankings released Tuesday, while LSU was closer to 15th.

Both teams are 6-2 overall, but LSU is ahead in the SEC standings and is 3-1 against Alabama at 3-1 in conference play. The Tigers had won six straight before suffering a 38-23 loss at Texas A&M two weeks ago, in a game dominated by the Aggies in the second half. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide defeated Missouri 34-0 in their last game two Saturdays ago.

As things stand heading into their Week 11 matchup, LSU is 10-1 to win the SEC and Alabama is 20-1. When it comes to odds, Georgia (+160) and Texas (2:1) are at the top. Despite the current SEC edge, LSU is 50-1 to win the national championship (and +190 to make the CFP), while Alabama is 18-1 (-140).

Kickoff is Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+.

Odds are current as of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

The lines

Spread: Alabama -3
Money line: Alabama -145, LSU +125
Over/under: 58.5 (above -105/below -115)

Distribution in the first half: Alabama -1.5 (-105), LSU +1.5 (-115)
First half moneyline: Alabama -135, LSU +105
First half total points: 27.5 (above -115/below -105)

Maldonado's pick: No. 11 Alabama -3 (-105) at No. 14 LSU

Alabama's defense is pickpocket on game day, always capable of putting the ball away. His significant improvement in turnover margin and ball security could be a deciding factor in Saturday night's road game against LSU.

Entering Week 11, Alabama sits in fifth place, a dramatic improvement from last season when it was ranked 63rd. The Crimson Tide's defense has been particularly effective lately, producing 10 takeaways in the last three games. In contrast, LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has thrown seven interceptions in his last four starts despite being pressured on just 24% of his dropbacks this season.

In what is expected to be a close game, this trend – if it continues – is a potentially decisive factor. Alabama's ability to protect the ball and create takeaways could give the Tide an advantage in controlling time of possession and field position. Against an LSU team that struggles defensively, especially against big plays, a win in the turnover battle would be a boon for Alabama when it comes to covering the 3-point range.

Alabama has some of the best defensive backs in the country, including Domani Jackson, Malachi Moore and Keon Sabb. Their collective versatility, athleticism and coverage skills make Alabama's secondary a disruptive force in college football.

LSU's offensive predictability could also lead to turnovers. The Tigers lack a strong ground game and rank 110th in rushing offense success rate. That means less pressure on Alabama's front seven, which previously struggled with mobile quarterbacks and effective running games. Because the Tigers rely heavily on the passing game (61% passing percentage, fifth highest in the country), Alabama's defense is able to focus on defending the air attack, allowing the Tide to adjust their defensive strategy more effectively. LSU's pass-heavy approach could create more interception opportunities and fits well with Alabama's “swarm defense” philosophy, which emphasizes creating turnovers.

Because of LSU's difficult running game, Nussmeier often finds himself in situations where he feels like he has to “stand on his damn head” and make big plays through the air, as coach Brian Kelly said after the season-opening loss to USC, which is the case was led to forced throws in tight coverage.

Some of his interceptions came when LSU was behind and trying to mount a comeback, which led to riskier throws. If the Tigers find themselves playing from behind and taking a fumble-and-fumble approach to ball security lately, the Tide could blow this game away by taking advantage of turnover opportunities.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• LSU is 3-1 overall as a home underdog under Brian Kelly (6-2 overall in the last eight games as a home underdog).

• Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last four games against Baton Rouge; The only missing insurance coverage was the last trip in 2022.

• Alabama is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games when the spread is between +3 and -3 (Spread opens Alabama -2.5).

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