Allan Lichtman says he has received death threats

Political historian Allan Lichtman said he received death threats after incorrectly predicting that Vice President Kamala Harris would win the 2024 presidential election against Donald Trump.

Lichtman's model, which has accurately predicted nine of the last 10 elections before this year, assesses the incumbent party's standing based on 13 true or false “keys” in areas such as the economy, foreign policy and domestic policy.

In a post on X, formerly Twitter, he said: “We have been faced with death threats, doxxing, swatting and intimidation on our doorstep. We won't let ourselves be bullied. Federal law enforcement is now alerted.”

“Doxxing” is the act of seeking someone’s personal information with malicious intent, and “swatting” is the act of deceiving an emergency service into sending a police or emergency services team to another person’s address.

Newsweek contacted Lichtman for comment via email outside of normal work hours.

In September, he used the model to predict that Harris would win, but after the election he admitted his mistake and pointed out that many forecasters had also misjudged the outcome.

According to the logic of the model, if six or more of the 13 “keys” are wrong, the incumbent party is likely to lose. If five or fewer are incorrect, the party is expected to retain the White House.

In a livestream posted to his YouTube channel on November 7, the so-called Poll Nostradamus admitted he was wrong.

“But I was far from the only forecaster who got it wrong. Most other models were wrong,” Lichtman said. “It wasn’t just a single key mistake. It was much more comprehensive.”

In the run-up to the election, the model from the survey portal FiveThirtyEight estimated Harris had a 50 percent chance of winning and Trump a 49 percent chance.

During Thursday's YouTube livestream, the professor explained that the problem was not with the keys themselves and that he believed he had interpreted them all correctly.

“My events are based on history,” Lichtman said.

The American University professor acknowledged that certain events in a given election could be influential enough to change the course of history.

“I think that’s what happened here,” he said.

“If you denigrate your sitting president so much, it will weigh on every candidate associated with this failed president, and especially if you choose his vice president.”

Lichtman also noted that it was “unprecedented” that Harris did not participate in a primary or caucus before his nomination.

“I called the key as best I could, given an unprecedented situation, because 99 percent of the delegates [members] united behind Harris, but I had to deal with an unprecedented situation.

“The Keys to the White House” has long been criticized by some political scientists, statisticians and journalists as “prone to bias and subjectivity.”

Lichtman's polling counterpart, statistician Nate Silver, said in late September that the keys predicted a Trump victory, to which the historian responded that Silver “didn't have the foggiest idea how to turn the keys.”

What are the keys to the White House?

The 13 keys, as outlined by the historian in a 2012 article Social pedagogy magazine, these are:

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party has more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. No main competition: There is no serious competition for the incumbent party's nomination.
3. Incumbent seeks re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the incumbent president.
4. No third party: There is no significant campaign by third parties or independent parties.
5. Strong Short-Term Economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Strong Long-Term Economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds the average growth during the previous two terms.
7. Important policy change: The incumbent government is bringing about major changes in national politics.
8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. No scandal: The incumbent government has been spared from major scandals.
10. No foreign or military failure: The incumbent government suffers no major failures in foreign or military affairs.
11. Significant foreign or military success: The incumbent government achieves great success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Uncharismatic Challenger: The challenging party candidate is neither charismatic nor a national hero.

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